LUNA Price Unchanged Amid Long-Term Downtrend Amid Market Volatility

On November 2, 2025, LUNA remained unchanged within the 24-hour window at $0.0945. However, the token continued its long-term bearish trajectory with a 7.21% decline over the past year. In contrast, the monthly performance showed a modest 1.18% increase, while the weekly trend recorded a 2.28% drop. These mixed timeframes illustrate a complex market behavior for the token, with short-term stability masking long-term erosion in value.

The recent price movements reflect broader uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market, driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment. Despite the flat 24-hour return, LUNA remains within a broader bearish consolidation phase, with long-term investors closely monitoring key technical levels and fundamental developments. Analysts project that the token will continue to face downward pressure unless there is a significant shift in market conditions or a major on-chain development.

Technical indicators such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, with the short-term upward momentum failing to produce a meaningful breakout. Additionally, on-chain metrics show a gradual loss of long-term holders, a sign of deteriorating conviction in the asset’s long-term potential. This dynamic is critical for traders and investors who rely on trend-following strategies or reversal patterns.

Backtest Hypothesis

In evaluating potential strategies for LUNA or similar assets, a well-defined backtesting framework can offer valuable insights. One such hypothesis involves testing a mean-reversion strategy on LUNA, where trades are triggered when the price declines by 10% from its prior close. The entry would occur at the close of the day the decline is confirmed, and the position is held for a fixed 10-day period or until the price recovers by at least 5%. This strategy aims to capture short-term volatility while minimizing exposure to longer-term trends. Position sizing is based on equal weights across each trade, with transaction costs factored in at 0.1% per trade to reflect market realities. Testing this strategy from January 1, 2022, through November 2, 2025, would provide a detailed assessment of its viability under recent market conditions.