LUNA -80.61% in 1 Year Amid Market Volatility and Technical Downtrend

On NOV 7 2025, LUNA dropped by 0.74% within 24 hours to reach $0.0803, marking continued downward pressure in the cryptocurrency’s recent performance. Over the past week, the token fell by 14.1%, and over the past month, it declined by 13.92%. This trend reflects a sharp and sustained sell-off that has seen LUNA lose over 80% of its value in a 12-month period, highlighting significant market challenges and investor sentiment shifts.

The 24-hour and weekly declines underscore a broader bearish trend, with LUNA experiencing heightened selling pressure amid volatile market conditions. The price movement is consistent with a long-term bear market narrative, as the token continues to trade far below its all-time highs. Investors and analysts have noted that the decline is part of a larger pattern, with no significant buying interest emerging to counterbalance the selling pressure.

Technically, the recent price action has seen LUNA break key support levels that had previously contained the token’s downside. The 7-day and 1-month declines suggest a continuation of bearish momentum, with further support levels likely to be tested in the near term. The price is currently trading below major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. Traders are closely watching for signs of a potential reversal, but so far, there has been no indication of a near-term bottom.

The broader market dynamics continue to favor risk-off strategies, with LUNA underperforming against most of its peers. The lack of bullish catalysts, such as regulatory developments or major project updates, has left the token vulnerable to ongoing market rotation. Analysts have emphasized that without a clear catalyst for a turnaround, LUNA is likely to remain in a downtrend.

Technical indicators suggest that the sell-off may not yet be complete, as momentum remains in a bearish phase. The relative strength index (RSI) has trended lower, indicating a lack of buying pressure and sustained bearish control. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is also in negative territory, showing that the downward trend is being reinforced by a lack of bullish momentum. These indicators collectively suggest that LUNA could see further downside in the near term, particularly if key support levels are breached.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the behavior of LUNA after significant price shocks, a backtesting strategy was applied to historical data from January 1, 2022, through November 7, 2025. The analysis focused on 57 instances where LUNA fell by at least 10% in a single trading session. The average next-day return following such events was -1.5%, with a win rate of approximately 39%, suggesting limited short-term recovery potential.

Over a 30-day period following the shock, the average cumulative return was +23.4%. However, the statistical significance of this return was weak, as the t-statistic did not indicate a robust edge. The wide dispersion of outcomes suggests that while some periods saw strong rebounds, others experienced continued declines, making it difficult to rely on this pattern for consistent returns.

The mean-reversion tendency became visible around day 6–10, but confidence bands remained wide, signaling high uncertainty. This implies that while mild rebound patterns exist, they are not strong enough to support a systematic trading strategy.

The backtesting assumptions included a price series based on close-to-close percentage changes, an event filter of -10% or greater drops, and a 30-day evaluation window. The benchmark used was LUNA’s unconditional drift, representing a buy-and-hold scenario over the same period. A two-tailed t-test was used to assess the significance of cross-event mean returns.