LUNA - -6.73% in 24 Hours Amid Broader Downturn

LUNA’s price dropped by 6.73% over the last 24 hours as of Nov 2, 2025, extending a broader bearish trend that has seen the asset fall by 9.53% over the past seven days and 78.95% in the last year. The token, which closed at $0.0874, continues to trade below its level from one month ago, which stood at $0.0936. These figures underscore a sustained decline that has persisted despite the absence of direct news events related to the LUNA ecosystem in the most recent market window.

The continued deterioration in LUNA’s price trajectory has not prompted clear statements from market participants regarding the root causes, though analysts suggest that broader macroeconomic and market conditions remain key factors. The lack of major developments in the LUNA project in recent months, coupled with general weakness across the crypto market, points to a trend more reflective of overall risk aversion and capital reallocation rather than any specific issues within the LUNA network.

While the token has not been the subject of recent project announcements or technical upgrades, the broader market context has played a role in shaping its performance. LUNA’s extended 12-month drop highlights the fragility of investor sentiment for the asset class following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. With no immediate sign of catalysts that could reverse the trend, the focus remains on whether further structural adjustments or market-driven rebounds can emerge in the coming months.

In recent discussions among market watchers, some have suggested that the token may still be in the early stages of a consolidation phase. However, this view is not supported by new data or project developments but rather by technical interpretations of market behavior. The extended bearish pattern has yet to show any reversal, though some analysts project that volatility could increase as more macroeconomic factors come into play over the coming weeks.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest of LUNA's behavior following sharp sell-offs revealed mixed results in terms of short-term recovery potential. The analysis, which included 57 instances of one-day sell-offs of 10% or more since 2022, found that the short-term (1–5 trading days) returns were generally negative and statistically insignificant. However, the cumulative returns began turning positive after two weeks, with only the 30-day window showing a statistically significant excess return of 24% compared to the benchmark’s 3%.

The win-rate for trades held under this strategy never exceeded 56%, indicating high variability in outcomes across different events. This suggests that while holding for a full month may capture meaningful recovery on average, the strategy is subject to considerable volatility and is not guaranteed to produce consistent results. The data implies that sharp one-day declines in LUNA historically offer limited bounce potential in the near term, and investors who choose to hold for longer periods may be rewarded with better outcomes, albeit at the cost of greater uncertainty.