LUNA +2.66% Amid Legal Risks and Market Volatility

On NOV 15, 2025, LUNA rose by 2.66% within 24 hours to $0.081, marking a short-term rebound against a broader context of 11.76% seven-day and 13.28% one-month declines. The coin remains significantly below its one-year peak, having lost 80.47% in annual value.

Legal challenges are intensifying for investors in MoonLake, a firm that operates under the ticker MLTX. Law firm Faruqi & Faruqi has issued a public reminder to potential lead plaintiffs regarding a pending class-action lawsuit. The firm highlighted that the litigation concerns misleading statements between March 10, 2024, and September 29, 2025, particularly regarding the scientific differentiation between nanobodies and monoclonal antibodies. The firm encourages affected investors to contact it directly ahead of the December 15 lead plaintiff deadline.

The allegations center on claims that MoonLake’s leadership overstated the clinical advantages of its drug candidate SLK compared to BIMZELX, a monoclonal antibody developed by another firm. According to the filing, the firm failed to disclose that SLK’s nanobody structure did not provide a measurable clinical benefit over existing treatments. This includes allegations that the supposed tissue-penetrating advantages of nanobodies did not translate into tangible efficacy for patients. Investors are being urged to weigh their legal options as the firm continues to process results from its Phase 3 VELA program, which was released in early September 2025.

Technical analysis of MoonLake’s stock and related assets suggests that earnings misses are not always bearish in the short term. A backtesting strategy focused on post-earnings-miss events between 2022 and 2025 reveals nuanced market responses. Over a sample of four such events, the stock exhibited positive momentum within the first three trading days post-announcement, with average excess returns of +2.65%. This short-term resilience suggests that traders might capitalize on initial relief rallies or dip-buying sentiment. However, the strategy’s strength diminishes over time, with returns turning negative between days 9 and 20 before partially recovering by day 30.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting hypothesis examined the performance of MLTX following earnings misses. The results suggest a tactical edge in entering the stock within three trading days after a negative earnings event and exiting promptly, capturing modest positive alpha. However, holding the position beyond one week increased volatility and reduced the likelihood of favorable outcomes. The win rate of the strategy declined significantly after the first week, with only about 25% of positions remaining profitable between days 9 and 24. These findings suggest that while short-term opportunities exist, longer-term exposure introduces higher risk.