LUNA -13.6% in 1 Month Amid Lingering Market Uncertainty

On NOV 15 2025, LUNA dropped by 0.25% within 24 hours to reach $0.0808, LUNA dropped by 12.09% within 7 days, dropped by 13.6% within 1 month, and dropped by 80.54% within 1 year.

The sustained decline in LUNA’s price over the past month reflects broader market uncertainty and a lack of catalysts to reinvigorate investor confidence. The 13.6% monthly drop underscores a growing trend of risk-off behavior in the crypto market, particularly as macroeconomic conditions remain mixed and institutional adoption has yet to reach critical mass. Analysts project that the lack of clear regulatory clarity and continued market consolidation may prolong the downward trend.

Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for LUNA in the near term. The RSI has remained below 30 for several days, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD line continues to trend downward. These signals point to a potential continuation of the current bearish phase, though a sharp reversal remains unlikely without a significant positive catalyst. A sustained break above the 200-day moving average would be a prerequisite for any meaningful recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the behavior of LUNA during periods of significant price drops, a backtesting strategy is proposed, focusing on days when the price declined by 10% or more. This strategy will examine how LUNA performed in the days following such declines, using historical data to determine patterns or potential predictive signals. The analysis will include a 20-day performance horizon post-event, as this is a commonly used time frame to gauge market sentiment and recovery potential. Additionally, risk control parameters such as a stop-loss of 8% and a take-profit of 10% will be included to simulate a practical trading strategy.