LUNA -12.63% in 1 Month Amid Broader Market Volatility

On NOV 16 2025, LUNA rose by 0.87% within 24 hours to reach $0.0815, while over the 7-day period, the asset dropped by 5.01%. Looking further out, LUNA has seen a significant decline of 12.63% over the past month and 80.32% over the past year. These figures reflect a market landscape where LUNA faces persistent downward pressure despite short-term price fluctuations.

The recent 24-hour uptick in LUNA’s price has not translated into broader momentum. The 7-day and 1-month declines suggest that market participants remain cautious about the asset’s value proposition. Analysts have noted that the broader context of the market, including movements in related assets and investor sentiment, continues to weigh on LUNA’s performance.

The technical indicators used in assessing LUNA’s price behavior highlight a complex set of signals. Short-term indicators have shown occasional bullish tendencies, but longer-term trends remain bearish. This divergence may indicate a period of consolidation or a potential reversal in the asset’s trajectory. However, without additional catalysts or shifts in market dynamics, it is unclear whether a sustained recovery is on the horizon.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent performance of LUNA, a backtest analysis was conducted to evaluate potential strategies for investors considering the asset. The hypothesis centers on the performance of LUNA following a one-month decline of 10% or more. This analysis involves detecting every instance since January 1, 2022, where LUNA experienced a one-month drop of at least 10%. Using these event dates, a backtesting engine was employed to assess the post-event performance metrics, including average returns, hit rates, optimal holding periods, and drawdowns.

The backtest results revealed that after a one-month decline of 10% or more, LUNA has historically shown a mixed recovery pattern. While some periods saw partial rebounds, others extended the downtrend for several months. The average return over a 60-day horizon post-event was slightly positive, but with considerable variability. The hit rate—defined as the frequency of positive returns within this period—was moderate, suggesting a degree of unpredictability in LUNA’s short-term performance following significant declines.

Optimal holding periods varied, with some instances showing better returns when held for 30 days and others when held for up to 60 days. The drawdown metrics underscored the volatility, with periods where losses were quickly reversed and others where it took several months to recoup initial declines. These findings imply that while a one-month drop of 10% may not be a definitive bearish signal for LUNA, it does indicate a period of heightened caution and strategic re-evaluation for investors.