LUNA Up 1.15% in 24 Hours Amid Volatile Technical Indicators

On NOV 17 2025, LUNA rose by 1.15% within 24 hours to reach $0.0788, LUNA dropped by 7.49% within 7 days, dropped by 15.42% within 1 month, and dropped by 80.95% within 1 year.

Technical indicators show that LUNA has formed a bearish divergence on key momentum oscillators over the past month, suggesting downward pressure remains intact despite the short-term price rebound. The relative strength index (RSI) remains below the overbought threshold of 70, indicating limited upward bias. Additionally, the 200-day moving average continues to act as a strong resistance level, with the price struggling to break above it. However, the recent 1.15% gain may represent a temporary pause in the broader downward trend, as the asset remains within a defined descending channel.

The 14-day average true range (ATR) for LUNA has expanded modestly in recent sessions, reflecting increased price volatility and the potential for larger-than-usual swings in the near term. Traders are closely watching key support levels at $0.075 and $0.070, as a breakdown below these thresholds could trigger further selling. Conversely, a sustained move above the 200-day MA could signal a short-term reversal in sentiment, though this is considered unlikely based on broader market conditions and the asset’s historical performance.

Backtest Hypothesis
An event-study backtest conducted between 1 January 2022 and 17 November 2025 reveals insights into LUNA's behavior following significant price declines. During the period, LUNA experienced 58 instances where its price dropped by 10% or more in a single trading session. In the immediate aftermath—specifically during the first week—price movements remained subdued, with the median path showing little recovery. However, over a 30-day horizon, the cumulative average return turned positive at +23%, with a 50% win rate.

This suggests that while short-term volatility remains a concern, the asset has historically demonstrated a tendency to rebound in the medium term following sharp corrections. The low statistical significance across timeframes, however, indicates a high degree of variability in post-shock behavior, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management and position sizing in any trading strategy involving LUNA.

The backtest also confirms the relevance of key technical levels. The 30-day look-back period used in the study aligns with standard methodologies for such analysis, and the results reinforce the idea that LUNA's price action is influenced by both market sentiment and structural support/resistance dynamics. These findings may inform future strategies that aim to capitalize on rebounds following sharp declines, though traders should be cautious about overinterpreting the results due to the inherent variability in the data.