Lululemon Stock Rises 3.23% Extending Rally to 5.93% Amid Technical Rebound Signals

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) shares rose 3.23% in the most recent session (July 1, 2025), marking the fourth consecutive daily gain and bringing the cumulative advance over these sessions to 5.93%. This rally occurs against a backdrop of significant volatility over the past year, which included a sharp decline from December 2024 highs near $386 to June 2025 lows near $220, followed by the current recovery attempt. The following technical analysis synthesizes multiple methodologies to contextualize this price action.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show a bullish reversal structure, with a hammer formation emerging near $220 on June 23 followed by consecutive green candles. The four-day rally culminating on July 1 exhibits progressively higher highs and closing prices near session peaks, indicating sustained buying pressure. Key resistance is established at the July 1 intraday high of $247.78, while support is evident near $225-227 (the June 23 low and subsequent consolidation zone). A confirmed break above $247.78 would suggest upside continuation, whereas failure to hold $237 could signal near-term exhaustion.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration reveals conflicting signals. The 50-day MA (currently near $236) has recently crossed above the 100-day MA (near $238), supporting the short-term uptrend. However, price remains below the declining 200-day MA (near $250), indicating unresolved long-term bearish pressure. The current rally is testing the 100-day MA from below, with the July 1 close at $245.26 demonstrating initial breach. Sustained trading above the 100-day MA would strengthen the bull case, though the overarching downtrend remains intact until price reclaims the 200-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned positive in late June, confirming building upward momentum as the signal line crossed bullish. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (K=20/D=18 on June 20) and currently approaches overbought thresholds (K=78/D=72 on July 1). While KDJ's steep ascent suggests near-term overextension, MACD's continuing expansion supports the bullish bias. No significant divergence exists currently, but elevated KDJ readings imply heightened potential for pullback risk in the coming sessions.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted notably through mid-June, signaling reduced volatility before the recent expansion phase. Price has now breached the upper band ($243 on July 1), typically suggesting overbought conditions. Band width expansion supports continued directional movement, but the close above the upper band warrants caution. The middle band (20-day SMA near $237) now offers dynamic support, with a retest likely to provide buying interest if volatility normalizes. Band squeeze resolution favors upside but requires confirmation through sustained volume.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are validated by rising volume, with July 1's 3.6 million shares marking the highest turnover since the June 6 capitulation event. Accumulation days have dominated the rally, suggesting institutional participation. The June 24 surge (3.8 million shares) coincided with a 3.27% breakout, establishing the foundational volume signature for this advance. However, overhead resistance near $250 aligns with historical distribution volume, necessitating continued volume expansion for sustained upside progress.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has risen from oversold extremes (reaching 28 during the June 6 sell-off) to a neutral 62 reading on July 1. While this indicates improving momentum, it remains below the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting additional near-term upside capacity. The RSI's higher low in late June versus price's flat consolidation created a positive divergence, foreshadowing the current rally. The indicator now approaches a critical test near 65-70, where historical reversals have initiated.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from the December 31, 2024 high ($386.67) to the June 23, 2025 low ($219.97) reveals significant confluences. The current rally has reached the 38.2% retracement level at $246.90 – precisely aligning with July 1's intraday resistance. The 50% retracement at $253.32 offers the next technical target, followed by the 61.8% level at $261.79. Notably, the 38.2% level converges with the 200-day MA and psychological $250 resistance, creating a critical technical barrier near $247-$253 where responsive selling may emerge.
Confluence exists in the $247-$253 resistance zone, where the 38.2% Fibonacci level, 200-day MA, July 1 high, and pre-June breakdown area converge. Conversely, multiple indicators (bullish MACD crossover, RSI divergence, volume confirmation, and moving average cross) support continued upside potential. The primary risk remains overextension, evidenced by Bollinger Band breaches and elevated KDJ readings. Should LULU clear $253 with conviction, the technical structure would shift meaningfully bullish, but failure below $237 would suggest false breakout conditions.