Lula says will run for R president again if health allows

Lula says will run for R president again if health allows

In a recent poll conducted between July 10 and 14, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) has emerged as the front-runner in Brazil's upcoming presidential election. The survey, published by Valor Internacional, indicates that Lula is statistically tied with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio Freitas in a potential runoff, but he would defeat other candidates such as Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, Eduardo Bolsonaro, and several governors in first-round scenarios [1].

Lula currently leads with 15% of mentions, followed by Bolsonaro with 11%, in a spontaneous poll where 68% of respondents are undecided. The poll surveyed 2,004 people and has a margin of error of two percentage points. In the closest first-round scenario, Lula would defeat Bolsonaro by 32% to 26%, but Bolsonaro is ineligible to run until 2030 and faces charges before the Federal Supreme Court (STF) for crimes against democracy [1].

Lula's lead over Bolsonaro has expanded since March, with Lula now polling at 43% to Bolsonaro's 37% in a hypothetical second-round scenario. The survey also tested eight second-round scenarios, with Lula winning seven and tying with Freitas. Bolsonaro's political future remains uncertain, with 62% of respondents believing he should step aside in 2026 and back another candidate [1].

The poll reflects Lula's growing strength and the right's weakening position amid the recent 50% tariff on Brazil imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. It also shows improving government approval ratings, with disapproval falling to 53% from 57% in May. However, political scientist Felipe Nunes cautions that it is premature to predict Lula's reelection prospects given the time remaining until the vote [1].

References:
[1] https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2025/07/18/lula-leads-presidential-race-but-ties-with-tarcisio-in-runoff.ghtml