LTC - 1.29% Dip Amid Earnings Forecast

On NOV 2 2025, LTC dropped by 1.29% within 24 hours to reach $100.08, LTC rose by 3.54% within 7 days, rose by 4.92% within 1 month, and dropped by 3.11% within 1 year.

LTC Properties Inc is anticipated to post earnings of 31 cents per share when it reports quarterly results on November 4, 2025, according to the mean estimate from three analysts. The firm is expected to experience a 40.5% decline in revenue, projecting $33.191 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, compared to $55.78 million in the same period last year.

The current average analyst rating for LTC is “hold,” with one analyst recommending a “strong buy” or “buy,” seven suggesting a “hold,” and none offering a “sell” or “strong sell.” The mean earnings estimate has remained unchanged over the past three months, signaling a stable outlook from analysts.

Analysts project the company’s 12-month median price target at $37.00, representing a 5.2% premium over the last closing price of $35.08. Historical performance reveals mixed outcomes, with earnings estimates frequently missed or narrowly met. For instance, the most recent quarterly earnings for June 30, 2025, came in at 0.51 per share, missing the estimate of 0.68 by 23%. Other quarters have shown both positive and negative deviations from expected figures, with the most significant beat recorded at 8.6% in December 2024.

The company’s ability to meet expectations has been inconsistent. Over the past year, LTC has missed its earnings forecasts in three of the last four quarters, while beating them twice. The most recent earnings report for March 31, 2025, matched estimates at 0.65 per share but only narrowly. This history of variance adds a layer of uncertainty to the upcoming report.

Backtest Hypothesis

An event-study backtest was conducted on LTC Properties (ticker LTC.N) around its earnings-release dates since 2022. The findings highlight the limited statistical power due to a small sample size—only three earnings events were analyzed. Short-term average returns in the 1-3 trading day window were slightly negative, with a win rate of 33-67%, suggesting no consistent positive movement post-earnings. Medium-term returns (15–30 trading days) showed moderate positivity, between 5-16%, but still lacked statistical significance.

Given these results and the nature of REITs, the backtest suggests earnings announcements alone do not offer a reliable trading edge. For a more robust analysis, expanding the sample size back to 2019 and including peer REITs could provide additional insights. Analysts also recommend factoring in other variables such as dividend changes or guidance revisions to identify patterns in earnings impact. The backtest assumes adjusted close prices and uses the S&P 500 as a benchmark.