Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Bet Big Amid Fed Drama

Bitcoin accumulation addresses have seen a notable inflow of assets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, signaling a growing confidence among long-term investors. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, a record $3.4 billion in Bitcoin flowed into accumulation addresses on the eve of the Fed’s decision, marking the second-largest single-day inflow of the year. This surge has brought the total amount of Bitcoin held in accumulation addresses to 2.84 million, with an average cost basis of $72,437. The accumulation trend suggests that institutional and savvy retail investors are positioning themselves for potential upside, even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

The timing of these inflows coincides with heightened market anticipation ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price movements, particularly around the $116,000 resistance level. Bitfinex analysts have noted that this price point is critical for Bitcoin to reclaim in order to resume its upward trend. The recent peak of $124,100 in mid-August has since seen momentum slow, with many buyers currently underwater in the $108,000–$116,000 range. A breakout above $116,000 would likely reinvigorate bullish sentiment and validate the Fibonacci-based target of $155,600, projected by analyst Mags.

The broader market is also showing signs of decorrelation from traditional equities, a factor that could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal in a diversified portfolio. Swissblock highlighted that the upcoming FOMC meeting is a key macro event, with the base case scenario involving a 25 basis point rate cut and neutral guidance from the Fed. While the market is largely pricing in a more dovish outcome, Swissblock warned of potential volatility as expectations are repriced. Despite these uncertainties, Bitcoin is unlikely to turn bearish, with continued upward movement expected, albeit with increased price swings.

Option market data further underscores the bullish sentiment. According to data from Laevitas.ch, 97% of the $8.3 billion in Bitcoin put options expire worthless at a price of $102,000. This suggests that traders are increasingly confident in Bitcoin’s ability to rise above key resistance levels. Short covering above $105,000 could trigger a price rally to new highs, according to some analysts. The open interest in Bitcoin options and futures indicates significant activity in both bullish and bearish positions, but the current market dynamics favor longs. For instance, the “bull put spread” strategy—where traders sell a higher strike put and buy a lower strike put—has gained popularity, reflecting a measured approach to capitalizing on upward momentum while capping downside risk.

On-chain activity has also shown strong accumulation from long-term holders. The net exchange outflow of 18,300 BTC on May 14 further reinforces the view that institutional investors and experienced traders are locking in Bitcoin for the long term. This behavior is often indicative of a price bottom, as large holders are willing to absorb short-term volatility in pursuit of long-term gains. The increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin, evidenced by $567 million in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs by June 2025, has also contributed to a more stable and liquid market, reducing the impact of short-term volatility.

As the market braces for the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin’s price action and accumulation trends suggest that a major rally could be on the horizon. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader technical and fundamental indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend, provided Bitcoin can successfully break through key resistance levels. The interplay between macroeconomic expectations and on-chain behavior will be critical in shaping Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.