Long-Term AI Stock Picks for 2035: Why TSMC and Amazon Stand Out

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"Strategic investments further solidify TSMC's position. According to industry reports, the company has committed $165 billion to U.S. expansion by 2025, including three new fabrication plants and advanced packaging facilities in Arizona. This move not only diversifies its global supply chain but also aligns with geopolitical trends, ensuring resilience against regional disruptions. TSMC's advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS and SoIC, also address the complex, heterogeneous system demands of AI applications, giving it a competitive edge over rivals according to industry analysis."

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The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is reshaping global industries, creating unprecedented opportunities for investors. As the demand for AI-driven infrastructure and applications accelerates, strategic diversification across foundational enablers and ecosystem leaders becomes critical. Two companies-TSMC and Amazon-stand out as long-term AI stock picks for 2035, offering a compelling blend of manufacturing dominance, scalable infrastructure, and diversified revenue streams. This analysis contrasts their strengths with emerging players like Nvidia and Palantir, highlighting why TSMC and Amazon are better positioned to navigate the risks and rewards of the AI era.

TSMC: The Unstoppable Engine of AI Hardware

TSMC's leadership in semiconductor manufacturing is the bedrock of the AI revolution. As of 2025, the company holds over 90% of the market share in the 3nm and 2nm foundry business, with an overall foundry market share of 60-70%. Its advanced process nodes, including the upcoming 2nm mass production in Q4 2025 and the 1.4nm roadmap for 2028, ensure it remains at the forefront of technological innovation according to industry analysis. These capabilities are critical for AI accelerators, powering high-performance computing systems for clients like NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD.

TSMC's HPC division, which includes AI chip manufacturing, accounted for 57% of its $33.1 billion Q3 2025 revenue-a 40.8% year-over-year increase- driven by surging demand for AI and HPC chips. Advanced nodes (7nm and below) contributed 74% of TSM's wafer revenue in the quarter, underscoring its alignment with AI's insatiable need for cutting-edge silicon according to market data.

Strategic investments further solidify TSMC's position. According to industry reports, the company has committed $165 billion to U.S. expansion by 2025, including three new fabrication plants and advanced packaging facilities in Arizona. This move not only diversifies its global supply chain but also aligns with geopolitical trends, ensuring resilience against regional disruptions. TSMC's advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS and SoIC, also address the complex, heterogeneous system demands of AI applications, giving it a competitive edge over rivals according to industry analysis.

Amazon: The Dual-Engine AI Powerhouse

Amazon's dominance in AI is anchored by its dual-engine strategy: e-commerce and cloud computing. According to financial reports, in Q2 2025, AWS generated $30.9 billion in revenue, a 17.5% year-over-year increase, contributing 18% to Amazon's total revenue. This growth is fueled by strategic investments, including a $4 billion partnership with Anthropic in 2024, and AWS's global expansion across 117 Availability Zones according to industry analysis.

The e-commerce segment, meanwhile, leverages AI to drive sales. According to data, Amazon's recommendation engine accounts for 35% of all purchases on its platform, generating over $200 billion annually. AI-powered tools like "Rufus," with 250 million users, and "Help Me Decide" further optimize the customer experience, increasing purchase completion rates by 60%.

Amazon's AI ambitions extend beyond retail. According to government sources, the company is investing up to $50 billion in AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, aligning with national priorities like cybersecurity and drug discovery. AWS re:Invent 2025 also unveiled innovations like Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, streamlining AI agent development for enterprises according to industry reports. These initiatives position Amazon as a leader in both consumer and enterprise AI ecosystems.

Contrasting with Emerging Players: Nvidia and Palantir

While TSMC and Amazon represent foundational and ecosystem-level strengths, emerging players like Nvidia and Palantir offer high-growth potential but come with elevated risks.

Nvidia's Q3 2025 revenue hit $57 billion, driven by its data center segment ($51.2 billion, up 66% year-over-year) and the Blackwell architecture. However, its market share in the PC add-in-board market slightly declined to 92% in Q3 2025. Investors like Michael Burry have raised concerns about the rapid depreciation of AI hardware and potential overvaluation, warning that current accounting standards may not reflect the true economics of AI chip usage.

Palantir, on the other hand, has outperformed AI chip stocks this year, with a 122% stock price surge and 63% year-over-year revenue growth. Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is driving enterprise AI integration, but its valuation raises questions about sustainability-224 times forward earnings and 106 times sales. Unlike TSMC and Amazon, Palantir lacks the diversified infrastructure and market scale to weather sector-specific downturns.

Risks and Rewards: Why TSMC and Amazon Win Long-Term

TSMC and Amazon's strengths lie in their ability to scale and adapt. TSMC's manufacturing dominance ensures it remains indispensable to AI hardware development, while its U.S. expansion mitigates geopolitical risks. Amazon's dual-engine model-combining e-commerce AI with AWS-creates a self-reinforcing cycle of data, innovation, and revenue.

Emerging players like Nvidia and Palantir, while innovative, face higher volatility. Nvidia's reliance on hardware depreciation cycles and Palantir's speculative valuation make them riskier bets for long-term investors. Amazon's recent acknowledgment of AI-driven workforce shifts-such as Andy Jassy's comments on reduced corporate headcount-also highlights the need for ethical governance, a challenge both companies are addressing according to company reports.

Conclusion: Strategic Diversification for 2035

For investors targeting 2035, TSMC and Amazon represent strategic diversification across the AI value chain. TSMC's role as the "foundational enabler" of AI hardware and Amazon's dual dominance in e-commerce and cloud AI provide a robust foundation for long-term growth. While emerging players like Nvidia and Palantir offer high-reward opportunities, their risks-whether technical, financial, or operational-make them less reliable as core holdings. In an AI-driven future, the winners will be those who build and scale infrastructure, not just applications.