The Long Road to Certification: China’s C919 Faces European Delays, Raising Stakes for Global Ambitions

The Comac C919, China’s ambitious entry into the global commercial aviation market, has been hailed as a symbol of the country’s technological prowess. But its path to certification in Europe—critical to unlocking its full market potential—is now expected to take far longer than anticipated. European regulators have made it clear: the aircraft won’t be cleared for European skies by 2025, as Comac once hoped. Instead, certification could stretch to between three to six years, according to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). This extended timeline underscores the immense challenges Comac faces in competing with industry giants like Boeing and Airbus, while also highlighting the geopolitical and regulatory complexities of China’s bid to dominate civil aviation.

The Certification Gauntlet
EASA’s revised timeline, announced in late 2023, marks a stark departure from Comac’s initial ambitions. The aircraft, which secured Chinese Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC) certification in December 2023, now faces a rigorous evaluation process to meet Europe’s stringent safety and design standards. EASA Director Florian Guillermet emphasized that certification would require “three to six years,” aligning with the typical five-to-eight-year timeframe for new aircraft. The delay stems from the need to validate critical systems, conduct flight trials, and ensure compliance with Europe’s regulatory framework—a process that has been further complicated by post-pandemic disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

Comac’s progress to date has been uneven. While it delivered just one C919 in 2022, deliveries rose to 13 in 2024, with a target of 30 in 2025. The aircraft has garnered over 1,000 orders, representing roughly 10% of global demand for single-aisle jets. Yet without EASA approval, these orders remain concentrated in China and its neighbors. The certification delay could push the C919’s global market entry to the latter half of this decade, potentially sidelining it in key markets like Europe and the Americas.

The stakes are high for Boeing and Airbus, whose dominance in the single-aisle jet market—currently split roughly 50-50 between them—could face a new challenger. A prolonged delay for the C919 might buy time for the incumbents, but it also highlights the vulnerabilities of their duopoly. For investors, the C919’s certification timeline could influence the long-term profitability of both companies, as well as the broader aviation supply chain.

Geopolitics and Supply Chains: A Double-Edged Sword
One paradox of the C919 project is its reliance on Western suppliers. Over 80% of its components, including its CFM LEAP-1C engines, are sourced from U.S. and European firms. This reliance, however, does not exempt the aircraft from EASA’s scrutiny. “Even with foreign-made parts, we must evaluate the entire system’s integration,” Guillermet noted. The geopolitical dimension further complicates matters: the U.S. has blocked FAA certification for the C919, a decision tied to broader tensions over China’s industrial policies.

For Comac, the path forward hinges on patience—and precision. The aircraft’s design has undergone iterative changes since 2019, with EASA only beginning to engage seriously with post-pandemic revisions in 2024. Acting EASA Director Luc Tytgat admitted that the agency is “starting anew” with some aspects of the C919’s design, which could stretch the timeline further.

Investor Implications: Risk and Reward in the Long Game
The extended certification timeline raises critical questions for investors. On one hand, the C919’s domestic momentum is undeniable. With 30 planned deliveries in 2025 and a five-year goal of 150 annual deliveries, Comac is steadily building a foothold in China’s booming aviation market. For suppliers like General Electric (GE) and Safran (which co-produce the LEAP engine), the C919 represents a stable revenue stream.

But global ambitions are another matter. Without EASA approval, the C919 cannot compete in markets where European certification is a de facto requirement. Airlines in Africa, Latin America, and even parts of Asia often prioritize EASA or FAA-certified aircraft for safety and financing reasons. The delay could also embolden Boeing and Airbus to invest in incremental upgrades to their competing models, such as the 737 MAX and A320neo, to stave off competition.

The data underscores the high stakes. Boeing’s stock price has fluctuated sharply in recent years, reflecting investor anxiety over its 737 MAX scandal and shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Airbus has faced its own challenges, including production bottlenecks and rising labor costs. A delayed C919 could prolong their dominance—or create a window for new entrants.

Conclusion: A Certification Crucible
The C919’s European certification journey is a test of China’s industrial ambitions—and a cautionary tale for investors. While Comac’s domestic progress is clear, the aircraft’s global potential remains contingent on overcoming regulatory and geopolitical hurdles. With EASA’s process likely to extend into the late 2020s, the C919’s market entry timeline now overlaps with the expected lifespan of Boeing’s and Airbus’s current models.

For investors, the calculus is stark: the C919’s success could reshape the aviation landscape, but only if Comac navigates Europe’s regulatory maze without compromising on safety or timelines. In the interim, Boeing and Airbus retain their edge, but the specter of a credible challenger looms large. As Guillermet put it, “I have no doubt they will achieve certification.” The question is, will it be soon enough?

The answer could determine not just the fate of the C919, but the future of global aviation itself.