"How Long Will the Nasdaq Correction Last? Here's What History Shows."

The Nasdaq Composite has been on a wild ride lately, with a correction that has left many investors wondering how long the downturn will last. As of March 18, 2025, the Nasdaq has fallen more than 13% from its peak on December 16, 2024, and is officially in correction territory. But how long will this correction last, and what can investors expect in the near future? Let's dive into the historical data and trends to find some answers.

First, let's take a look at the historical performance of the Nasdaq during previous corrections. Over the past two decades, the Nasdaq has experienced several corrections, each followed by significant gains. For instance, during the period from November 2021 to October 2022, the Nasdaq declined by 35% but subsequently gained 56%. Similarly, from February 2020 to March 2020, the index declined by 30% but then gained 154%. These historical trends suggest that corrections do not necessarily mean a bigger drop is ahead and that the Nasdaq has a history of recovering and advancing over time.



But what about the current correction? How does it compare to previous ones, and what can we expect in the near future? One key factor to consider is the current economic environment. Recent economic indicators, such as a drop in consumer confidence in February and a weaker-than-expected jobs report, have fueled uncertainty about the economy and the potential effect on corporate earnings. These factors, combined with the launch of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, have contributed to the Nasdaq's current correction. However, historical data shows that corrections generally lead to positive performance. Of 11 Nasdaq corrections since 2010, 10 have resulted in positive performance in the 12 months to follow, with an average annual gain of more than 21%.

Another factor to consider is the current valuation of the market. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which considers stock prices and earnings per share over a 10-year period, reached a level of 37 in December 2024, something it has done only twice before since the launch of the benchmark as a 500-company index in the late 1950s. Although it is still high at the level of 35 today, it has started to come down, suggesting that stocks are getting cheaper and offering more evidence that stocks are getting cheaper.

So, what can investors expect in the near future? While it's impossible to predict the exact duration and severity of the current correction, historical data and current market trends suggest that the Nasdaq has the potential to recover from the current correction. Investors who focus on long-term prospects and take advantage of bargain prices may benefit from the market's resilience. For example, Nvidia is trading at only 24x forward earnings estimates, down from about 50x in recent months. Similarly, Amazon now trades for 31 times forward estimates, compared with 45 just a few months ago. This presents an opportunity for investors to buy stocks at bargain prices, which could support the Nasdaq's recovery in the long term.

In conclusion, while recent political events and economic indicators pose challenges, historical data and current market trends suggest that the Nasdaq has the potential to recover from the current correction. Investors who focus on long-term prospects and take advantage of bargain prices may benefit from the market's resilience. As always, it's important to stay informed and make investment decisions based on a well-researched and diversified strategy.