Lombard/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-01

• Price dropped from ~0.692 to ~0.664 on massive volume after a short-lived overbought spike.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum after the 15-minute candle at 20:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands contracted before the sharp move up, followed by a violent expansion.
• High turnover at 20:00 ET coincided with a key breakout and subsequent reversal.
• The 0.666–0.670 range appears to be the immediate support/resistance cluster for the next 24 hours.

Lombard/Tether’s BARDUSDT pair opened at 0.6433 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 0.6923 before retreating to a low of 0.6610. The price closed at 0.6706 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 2,339,946.5 units, while notional turnover (volume × price) was roughly $1,535,782. The pair displayed a classic topping pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a strong bearish reversal emerging after an overbought RSI spike.

Key support levels at 0.666 and 0.663 have held multiple times, while resistance appears to reside at 0.673–0.675. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:00 ET as the price surged from ~0.645 to ~0.687 and then reversed sharply in the following candle. A doji-like structure at 00:00 ET also signaled indecision after the initial bearish correction. These patterns suggest traders are pausing for retests of the key support and resistance areas, with the 0.666 level likely to be tested again soon.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price closing below the 50-period line after the 20:00 ET spike, which indicates a potential bearish bias. The 20-period line has crossed below the 50-period, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA from above, suggesting a potential crossover could occur in the next 24–48 hours if the downtrend continues. Traders may use the 0.670–0.666 zone to assess whether the short-term bearish trend could extend.

The RSI bottomed at ~33 on 2025-11-01 at 03:15 ET, indicating a moderate oversold condition, but the price has yet to close above the 0.675 level. MACD crossed bearish territory after the 20:00 ET candle and remains negative, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands were in a period of contraction before the 20:00 ET spike and have since expanded rapidly, indicating heightened volatility. The current price sits just below the upper band, signaling potential for a pullback.

A backtest hypothesis could leverage the observed RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover. Given the sharp reversal after the overbought condition and the strong volume spike, a strategy might consider entering a short position when RSI exceeds 70 and the 15-minute MACD line crosses below the signal line. Holding for one trading day and exiting at the next day’s close could be effective in capturing the bearish momentum. This approach may need to be paired with a stop-loss near the 0.675–0.680 level, as seen in the recent candle on 2025-11-01, to manage risk.