Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell sharply during the overnight session but found support near 1.074, with a 24-hour low of 1.0669
• RSI showed oversold conditions, while volume spiked on the rebound
• Bollinger Bands tightened ahead of a breakout attempt above 1.125
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.1453, signaling bearish momentum
• Turnover surged during the drop but declined on the rally, hinting at waning conviction

Lombard/Tether (BARDUSDT) opened at 1.1258 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET and closed at 1.0922 the next day. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 1.1953 and a low of 1.0555. Total volume was approximately 14,651,114.8 units, with a notional turnover of $16,396,264 (based on average price of ~1.1185).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action formed a sharp bearish reversal structure, particularly around the 1.1453–1.1719 swing high, where a bearish engulfing pattern appeared. A strong rejection at 1.1453 was followed by a steep decline to 1.0669, indicating a shift in sentiment. A potential support level has emerged at 1.074–1.0867, where the price rebounded twice. The 1.1000 level appears to be a short-term resistance, with mixed candlestick formations suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both crossed below price action, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at ~1.115, 100-period at ~1.120, and 200-period at ~1.123, with price currently below all three. This configuration may indicate a continuation of the downward trend unless a strong reversal occurs near key support levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the overnight session, with bearish divergence evident in the histogram. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI failed to form a bullish divergence during the rebound, raising questions about the strength of the potential bounce. This implies traders should remain cautious and watch for a retest of 1.0867.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the drop from 1.1719 to 1.0555, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty. Price currently sits near the lower band at ~1.0867, with the middle band at ~1.104. A break above the middle band could signal a short-term recovery, but a close below the lower band may extend the bearish phase. Traders should monitor for volatility contraction as a potential precursor to a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the steep decline from 1.1719 to 1.0669, with a 15-minute candle on 2025-09-27 09:0000 showing a volume of 1,464,762.5 units and a turnover of ~$160,000. This suggests strong conviction in the bearish move. However, subsequent volume has declined, particularly during the rally to 1.0922, hinting at a possible exhaustion of downward momentum. A divergence between price and volume could signal a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 1.1453–1.1719 swing high, price found support at the 61.8% level (~1.154). On the larger daily swing from 1.1953 to 1.0555, key retracement levels include the 61.8% (~1.105) and 38.2% (~1.135). A break above 1.105 could test the 38.2% level, while a failure to hold 1.0867 may send price toward 1.074 or even the 61.8% of the 1.1719–1.0555 move (~1.069).

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy could involve a short-entry setup triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern at key resistance levels (e.g., 1.1453–1.1719) combined with RSI entering overbought territory and a MACD bearish crossover. Stops could be placed above the engulfing pattern's high, while targets could align with Fibonacci support levels like 1.105 and 1.0867. Given recent volume patterns, such a strategy may be more effective during high-liquidity hours, with tighter risk-reward ratios on smaller retracements.