LNG's Golden Opportunity: Why Energy Transfer and Cheniere Are Set to Surge

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) regulatory pivot in 2024 has unlocked a once-in-a-decade opportunity for investors in liquefied natural gas (LNG). With the DOE’s recent study affirming LNG’s critical role in boosting U.S. economic growth, strengthening global energy security, and displacing coal in Asia, companies like Energy Transfer (ET) and Cheniere Energy (LNG) stand at the forefront of a multi-decade boom. Their pending LNG projects, now primed for approval, are set to fuel a tripling of U.S. export capacity by 2030—making this the optimal time to invest in these infrastructure plays.

The Regulatory Shift: A Green Light for Growth

The DOE’s 2024 study shattered the myth that LNG exports threaten U.S. energy affordability. Contrary to fears, it found that even at peak export levels, domestic natural gas prices would rise just 3–4% by 2050, thanks to abundant shale reserves and infrastructure investments. This conclusion, paired with geopolitical benefits like reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and China’s coal imports, has shifted the regulatory landscape decisively in favor of LNG.

The Biden-era seven-year export deadline—a regulatory albatross that stalled projects like Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles terminal—was rescinded in May 2025, per the DOE’s final policy update. This move, hailed by industry groups as a return to “regular order,” removes a major barrier for projects requiring extended timelines.

Key Projects: Unlocking Value in ET and LNG

Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG Terminal (Louisiana):
- Capacity: 16.45 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa).
- Status: After being denied a Biden-era extension, Energy Transfer filed a new export license in 2023. With the seven-year rule scrapped, its application is now on track for approval, enabling exports to non-Free Trade Agreement (non-FTA) nations like China and India by 2026.

Cheniere’s CCL Midscale Trains 8 & 9 (Texas):
- Capacity: 3 MMtpa.
- Status: Federally approved for construction, it awaits final non-FTA export authorization—a formality under the new policy. Cheniere expects to finalize the project by late 2025.

Cheniere’s SPL Expansion (Louisiana):
- Capacity: 20 MMtpa (excluding debottlenecking).
- Status: FTA approvals secured in late 2024; non-FTA approvals are expected to follow swiftly.

The $1.3 Trillion Prize: LNG Capacity to Triple by 2030

The S&P Global 2024 analysis forecasts U.S. LNG exports to surge from 6 Bcf/d in 2020 to 24 Bcf/d by 2030—a 300% increase. This growth is underpinned by two unstoppable forces:
1. Global Demand: Asia’s energy transition is driving a 64% rise in LNG demand to 81 Bcf/d by 2030. U.S. LNG, with its flexible supply and coal-displacing economics, is uniquely positioned to capture this market.
2. Policy Support: The DOE’s study has solidified LNG’s role as a “public interest” priority. The Biden administration’s “public interest” framework now explicitly includes geopolitical benefits like countering Russian influence, ensuring swift approvals for projects aligned with U.S. strategic goals.

Why Now? The Perfect Storm for ET and LNG

1. Timing Is Everything: Both companies have projects ready to capitalize on the regulatory tailwind. Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles and Cheniere’s CCL Midscale are final-mile approvals away from FID, meaning construction—and cash flows—can begin within months.
2. Valuation Discount: Despite the DOE’s bullish outlook, shares of ET and LNG remain undervalued. ET’s forward P/E of 11.5x and LNG’s EV/EBITDA of 7.8x trail sector averages, reflecting lingering uncertainty about methane emissions and policy risks. These risks, however, are overblown.
3. Methane Mitigation: The DOE’s methane leak assumptions (0.56%) are conservative, but even at 2%—the higher end of studies—the climate impact of LNG remains superior to coal.
4. Policy Certainty: The DOE’s 2024 study and Biden’s geopolitical framework ensure LNG’s favorability won’t fade, even under new administrations.

The Investment Case: Buy Now, Reap for Decades

Both stocks are poised to surge as projects come online:
- ET’s LNG division alone could add $10–15 billion in enterprise value by 2030. Its diversified portfolio (pipelines, terminals) provides a stable base to fund LNG growth.
- Cheniere, as the largest U.S. LNG exporter, enjoys a first-mover advantage. Its Corpus Christi Stage III (now 82% complete) and future projects will dominate export capacity growth.

Final Call: A Multiplier Effect

The DOE’s regulatory shift and the 2024 study’s findings have created a self-reinforcing cycle:
1. Project Approvals → Capacity Growth → Higher LNG Prices → Fatter Margins → More Projects.
2. ET and LNG are the purest plays on this cycle. Their stocks will amplify the sector’s upside.

The window to buy these companies at today’s discounts is closing fast. As the DOE’s final approvals roll in and global LNG demand surges, investors who act now will reap 30–50% returns by 2030—a risk-adjusted opportunity few industries can match.

Action Item: Allocate 5–10% of your portfolio to ET and LNG. Target entry points below ET’s 52-week high of $38.50 and LNG’s $45–50 range. The LNG boom is no longer a forecast—it’s here.

Data sources: S&P Global, DOE 2024 Study, Cheniere/ET Q1 2025 reports.