LME tin stocks down 150 ton on Jul 3 from previous day

·LME: Inventory of tin recorded 4,575 tons, a decrease of 150 tons, or 3.33%, from the previous day on 2023-07-03. In the most recent week, LME: tin stocks experienced a cumulative decrease of 205.00 tons, or 4.29%. Over the last month, tin inventories have collectively fallen by 425.00 tons, representing an 8.50% decrease. Historical data reveals that since 2021-07-05, the LME: tin inventory has ranged from a high of 8,205.00 tons to a low of 6,450.00 tons. The average inventory value has been 3,781.31 tons. The current inventory level (4,575.00 tons) is 17.35% above the average.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) inventory of tin has witnessed a significant increase in recent weeks, climbing to an eight-month high of 4,305 metric tons [1]. This surge in stocks comes after a prolonged period of tightness in the market, driven by a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve.

In the most recent week, LME tin stocks experienced a cumulative decrease of 205.00 tons, or 4.29%. However, the decline was short-lived as tin continued to arrive in response to the market tightness [1]. Over the last month, inventories have fallen by a total of 425.00 tons, representing an 8.50% decrease. While this may seem concerning at first glance, historical data reveals that LME tin inventories have ranged from a high of 8,205.00 tons to a low of 6,450.00 tons since July 2021 [1]. The current inventory level of 4,575.00 tons is 17.35% above the average inventory value of 3,781.31 tons.

Despite the increase in LME stocks, the physical supply chain appears to have refilled over recent months. This is evident in the warranting of 515 metric tons of tin at the Baltimore port, which was previously so tight that buyers were paying an eye-watering $4,000 per metric ton over the LME price to secure supplies [2]. The Midwest premium is now assessed at $1,550 per metric ton, making delivery onto the LME a viable option.

The surge in LME inventories can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the recovery of producers from COVID-19 disruption and subdued demand from the soldering sector. However, it is important to note that supply disruption in Myanmar could potentially impact the market and lead to the need for inventory cushion.

In summary, the significant increase in LME tin inventories marks a reversal of the previous trend of scarcity in the market. While the surge in stocks may be concerning to some, historical data suggests that this is a normal fluctuation within the range of inventory levels observed since 2021.

References:
[1] London Metal Exchange. (2023). LME Tin. Retrieved July 14, 2023, from https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-tin
[2] Reuters. (2023, July 12). Global tin stocks at two-year highs after LME squeeze. Retrieved July 14, 2023, from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-tin-stocks-two-year-highs-after-lme-squeeze-2023-07-12/