LLY Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for the Week of Dec 23, 2025

• LLY trades at $1074.37, down 0.2% from yesterday’s close but up 2.2% from its intraday low
• Call open interest dominates near $1100–$1110 strikes, with a put/call ratio of 0.91 (bullish skew)
• Novo Nordisk’s oral drug approval creates near-term pressure, but Lilly’s $17.6B FY2025 revenue and orforglipron pipeline remain catalysts

Here’s the thing: LLY’s options market is whispering "buy the dip" louder than the headlines. While Novo Nordisk’s FDA win shakes the short-term narrative, the technicals and options positioning suggest a resilient bull case. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Skew in OTM Calls, But Puts Signal Caution

LLY’s options chain shows a clear tilt toward calls, especially at the $1100 and $1110 strikes (3461 and 1230 open interest, respectively). This isn’t just noise—it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players who see a 2.3% upside target as a floor. The put/call ratio of 0.91 (favoring calls) reinforces this, though the $1000 put strike (1039 OI) acts as a subtle hedge against a 7% drop.

But here’s the catch: The Bollinger Bands show LLY’s 20-day volatility is still wide (lower band at $973), meaning a pullback isn’t out of the question. Block trading is quiet for now, but the Lilly Endowment’s 300,000-share sale could add short-term selling pressure. Think of it like a storm cloud—present, but not yet raining.

News Flow: Competition vs. Fundamentals

Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy approval is a speed bump, not a roadblock. Yes, it intensifies the obesity drug race, but Lilly’s orforglipron is already in FDA review. The bigger story? FY2025 revenue hit $17.6B—54% growth—and the company is expanding manufacturing to meet demand.

Investor sentiment is split: Retail traders might panic over Novo’s January launch, but institutional money is betting on Lilly’s long-term dominance. The key question isn’t if competition matters—it’s how fast Lilly’s pipeline can catch up. For now, the stock’s 57.6 RSI suggests it’s not overbought, giving bulls room to breathe.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Week, Stock for the Long Game

For options traders: The LLY20260102C1100 call (expiring Jan 2) is a setup worth watching. With 329 OI and LLY trading just $25 away from this strike, a breakout above $1088 (intraday high) could trigger a cascade of covering buys. If you’re bearish, the LLY20260102P1050 put (433 OI) offers downside protection, but I’d only use it as insurance, not a core trade.

For stock players: Consider entry near $1021–1024 (30D support zone). If LLY holds here, target $1088 as a near-term ceiling. A break below $1021 would force a reevaluation—this isn’t a "buy and forget" play, but the technicals and fundamentals align for a measured bullish bet.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Short-Term Risks with Long-Term Bullish Setup

LLY isn’t a straight-line trade. The next two weeks will test its resolve: Novo’s January launch, Lilly’s oral drug approval timeline, and the Endowment’s share sale all matter. But the 200D moving average ($819) is a distant floor, and the MACD histogram (-0.89) hints momentum could stabilize soon.

Bottom line: This is a stock where the long-term story (GLP-1 dominance, Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla) outweighs short-term hiccups. If you’re in, manage risk tightly. If you’re on the sidelines, the options market is giving you a green light to watch the $1100 level like a hawk.