LLY Options Signal $1,000 Put Dominance and $1,200 Call Bullishness: Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• LLY’s intraday drop to $1,007 (a 1.78% slide) clashes with long-term SMAs and analyst upgrades.
• Options whales are hedging at $1,000 puts (OI: 2,165) while eyeing a $1,200 call peak (OI: 913 this week).
• BMO and Guggenheim just raised price targets to $1,200 and $1,163, betting on obesity drug wins.

Here’s the takeaway: LLY’s options market is split between cautious bears and aggressive bulls. The stock’s 30-day support at $1,020.69 and 200-day SMA at $819.37 create a wide trading range—but today’s price action and options flow hint at a pivotal moment. Let’s break it down.

Bull-Bear Battle at $1,000 and $1,200: What the Options Are Saying

The options chain tells a story of tension. This Friday’s $1,000 puts (LLY20251205P1000) dominate with 2,165 open contracts, nearly double the next put. That’s a hedge against a sharp drop below $1,000, especially with the 30-day support zone ($1,020.68–$1,026.64) in play. Meanwhile, the $1,200 calls (LLY20251205C1200) have 913 open contracts, showing big money is still bullish on the $1,200 target.

The put/call ratio of 0.868 (calls outweighing puts) suggests more aggression on the long side. But don’t ignore the risk: the RSI at 54.19 isn’t screaming overbought, but the MACD histogram (-7.04) hints momentum is slowing. If LLY breaks below $1,007 (today’s low), the next support is the 200D SMA at $819.37—a 20% drop from current levels.

Why Analyst Upgrades Aren’t Enough to Calm the Bears

BMO’s $1,200 price target and Guggenheim’s $1,163 call are backed by strong fundamentals: retatrutide’s 75% trial success odds and Mounjaro’s 68% YoY growth. But today’s price drop shows profit-taking is real. The stock’s 52-week high of $1,111.99 is now a psychological hurdle.

Here’s the catch: the news flow and options data align. Analysts love the long-term story, but the market is pricing in near-term volatility. The $1,000 puts and $1,200 calls are like a seesaw—bulls need a TRIUMPH-4 trial win, bears need a regulatory misstep or pricing pressure.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Cautious

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• LLY20251205P1000 (this Friday’s $1,000 puts): Buy if LLY dips below $1,020.69. Target a 5–10% move if the stock hits $950 (lower Bollinger Band at $918.62).
• LLY20251212C1200 (next Friday’s $1,200 calls): Buy if LLY rebounds above $1,035. Target a 3–5% gain if BMO’s trial optimism pushes the stock to $1,150.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $1,020.69 (30-day support) with a stop-loss below $1,007.18. Target $1,035 (intraday high) first, then $1,070 (upper Bollinger Band at $1,132.44).
• Short-term scalpers: Sell into strength above $1,035 with a tight stop at $1,025.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing the Bull and Bear Cases

The next two weeks will test LLY’s resolve. If the stock holds above $1,000, the $1,200 call buyers win. If it breaks below $1,000, the puts could surge. The key is timing: the 30-day RSI at 54.19 isn’t extreme, but the MACD crossover (50.04 vs. 57.08 signal line) warns of a potential pullback.

Bottom line: This is a stock caught between a bullish long-term story and a volatile short-term setup. Play it like a chess game—protect your downside with puts, but don’t miss the call if the bulls reclaim control. The TRIUMPH-4 trial in late 2025 could be the final piece of the puzzle. For now, the options market is your best guide.

P.S. Keep an eye on the $1,000 level—it’s not just a price, it’s a psychological line in the sand.