LiveRamp Plummets 15.6%: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Signal?

Summary
• LiveRamp (RAMP) crashes 15.6% intraday to $27.49, its lowest since 2025-05-03
• Benchmark raises price target to $53, but Q2 guidance falls short of expectations
• Options volatility surges as traders bet on sharp directional moves

LiveRamp’s stock has plunged to a 15-month low amid mixed earnings signals and sector-wide uncertainty. With a 15.6% intraday drop, the stock has erased nearly $500M in market cap, testing critical support levels. The move follows a Q2 earnings report that exceeded revenue forecasts but missed EPS targets, while a new pricing model and account closures have raised questions about recurring revenue sustainability.

Account Closures and Pricing Shifts Trigger Sharp Selloff
LiveRamp’s selloff stems from two key factors: temporary ARR deceleration due to Oracle and project-based customer account closures, and a strategic shift to a usage-based pricing model. The company acknowledged $6–10M in ARR attrition from these closures, while the new pricing structure—aimed at attracting large quick-service restaurant clients—introduces near-term uncertainty about revenue predictability. Despite a 10.7% YoY revenue beat in Q2, the market reacted negatively to the 1.1% below-estimate Q3 guidance, signaling skepticism about management’s ability to offset these headwinds.

Software—Infrastructure Sector Mixed as LiveRamp Dives
The Software—Infrastructure sector remains fragmented, with peers like EverCommerce (+10.25%) and CSG Systems (+0.83%) outperforming RAMP. However, Rapid7 (-2.21%) and Verint (-3.76%) reflect broader concerns about pricing pressures and margin compression. LiveRamp’s 15.6% drop contrasts with the sector’s 7.66% YTD gain, highlighting its vulnerability to execution risks in a competitive data infrastructure market.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Volatile Move
• 200-day MA: 29.95 (below current price)
• RSI: 45.11 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.017 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 31.91–33.69 (price at lower band)

LiveRamp’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, but the 52W low of $21.62 remains a critical watchpoint. The 27.5 strike call (RAMP20250815C27.5) and 27.5 put (RAMP20250919P27.5) offer asymmetric risk/reward profiles. The call’s 33.15% leverage ratio and 46.93% IV position it for a short-term bounce, while the put’s 22.01% leverage and 34.91% IV hedge against further declines. A 5% downside scenario (to $26.12) would yield a 11.11% payoff for the call and 78.57% for the put, though liquidity in the 8/15 contracts remains moderate.

• RAMP20250815C27.5 (Call): Strike $27.5, Expiry 8/15, IV 46.93%, Leverage 33.15%, Delta 0.523, Theta -0.108, Gamma 0.196, Turnover 546
• RAMP20250919P27.5 (Put): Strike $27.5, Expiry 9/19, IV 34.91%, Leverage 22.01%, Delta -0.457, Theta -0.0018, Gamma 0.119, Turnover 1,595

The 8/15 call benefits from high gamma (0.196) and moderate IV, making it responsive to price swings. The 9/19 put offers a longer runway with 0.119 gamma and 34.91% IV, ideal for a defensive play. Aggressive bulls may consider the 8/15 call into a rebound above $30, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $26.18.

Backtest LiveRamp Stock Performance
The RAMP ETF has demonstrated resilience following a significant intraday plunge of -16%. The 3-day win rate is 51.97%, the 10-day win rate is 50.66%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.84%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term after the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.54%, which occurred on day 7, suggesting that the ETF tends to recover modestly in the immediate aftermath of a sharp decline.

Act Now: Position for a Rebound or Protect Against Further Downturn
LiveRamp’s 15.6% drop has created a high-risk, high-reward scenario. While the 52W low of $21.62 offers a potential floor, the stock’s path depends on Q3 execution and the success of its new pricing model. Investors should monitor the 27.5 support/resistance level and watch for a breakdown below $26.18, which could trigger a deeper correction. For context, sector leader Salesforce (CRM) fell 3.55% today, underscoring broader market jitters. A disciplined approach—using the 8/15 call for a short-term bounce or the 9/19 put for downside protection—could position traders to capitalize on volatility. Watch for $30 retests or a breakdown below $26.18 to dictate next steps.