Livepeer/Yen Market Overview for October 12, 2025

• LPTJPY fell 7.3% in 24 hours amid bearish consolidation and high volume in early trading.
• Price broke key support at 734.3, with 710.8–718.5 becoming the new key range.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with potential for further 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in early morning ET, followed by a sharp break to the downside.
• Late-day rally failed to reclaim key levels, highlighting weak buyer participation.

Market Summary and Key Metrics

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 734.3 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 736.9 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 788.8 and a low of 691.6. The pair traded on a total volume of 6,002.12 and a notional turnover of LPTJPY 4,695,840.76, showing a sharp bearish shift followed by limited recovery in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period showed a clear breakdown below the 734.3 level, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A large bearish engulfing candle formed around 19:30–20:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase between 710.8 and 718.5. Later in the session, a bullish reversal candle formed but failed to close above 734.3, indicating weak follow-through from buyers.

Support levels to watch include 710.8 and 691.6, while the resistance zone remains at 734.3–738.1. A breakdown below 710.8 could trigger further movement toward the 691.6 level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish “death cross” formation during early trading, confirming the downward shift. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs, signaling a broader bearish trend.

The MACD line remained below the signal line throughout the session, with bearish momentum increasing during the late ET hours. The RSI dipped below 30 in early morning trading, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. This could indicate a weak short-term bounce but not a reversal.

Volatile Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly around 709.1–714.9, suggesting a period of low volatility and potential breakouts. The price later broke below the lower band, confirming bearish continuation. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 703.1, with the 38.2% level at 719.8.

Applying Fibonacci to the morning rally from 691.6 to 743.2, the 61.8% retracement level lies at 703.1, with 710.8 as the next key level to watch. A close below 703.1 could validate deeper bearish potential.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged sharply in the early ET hours, with the most activity occurring around 00:15–00:45 ET, when a massive 3856.32 volume drove price up to 735.5. This was followed by a sell-off starting at 00:45 ET, where volume dropped significantly and price moved lower.

The divergence between rising price and falling volume in the late morning ET hours suggests weak conviction in the rally. Turnover also spiked during the early morning phase, with the largest single candle showing 788.8 high and 709.1 open, indicating strong bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price structure, a potential backtest strategy could be designed using a combination of Bollinger Band breakouts and RSI oversold levels. Specifically, a trade could be triggered when price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band (confirmed by a close below the band), accompanied by an RSI reading below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the 734.3 resistance, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 703.1.

This setup appears to align with the morning's price behavior, particularly between 00:45–02:00 ET. A test of this strategy on historical data would provide insight into its viability. The bearish momentum and low volatility contraction suggest this setup may offer favorable risk-reward for short-term traders.