Livepeer/Yen Market Overview

• Price surged from 983.2 to 1005.2 on high volume
• Bullish momentum with RSI above 60 and MACD bullish
• Volatility expanded as price broke above upper Bollinger Band
• Volume increased significantly during the overnight session
• Fibonacci levels suggest 994.5–1014.5 as likely next targets

Market Summary and Key Metrics

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, LPTJPY opened at 983.2, reached a high of 1005.2, and closed at 1001.0, after touching a low of 975.8. Total 24-hour volume was 3,867.8 units, and notional turnover was 3,848,538.9 JPY, marking a strong upward move from the previous day.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear reversal formation from late evening to early morning with a bullish engulfing pattern at 992.3–991.2 and a strong breakout candle from 997.9–999.9. Key support levels identified include 984.0 (retested multiple times), 978.6 (low of a prior bearish candle), and 975.8 (the day’s lowest close). Resistance levels at 990.4 and 1000.3 were sequentially breached, with the latter acting as a new support during a short pullback.

20/50 EMA and Daily Trends

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA around 23:15 ET, signaling bullish momentum. The 50 EMA at 987.3 closely tracked the price during the early part of the session. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA is well below current price action, with the 200 EMA at 975.0 acting as a strong base level.

MACD and RSI

The MACD crossed above zero at 01:30 ET and remained in bullish territory, with the histogram expanding as the price pushed higher. RSI climbed above 60 and peaked at 63.8, indicating strong, but not extreme, momentum. No overbought conditions were recorded, and the RSI shows no signs of slowing.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart widened as the price surged, with the 1005.2 candle closing well above the upper band. This expansion suggests increased volatility and a break from a prior consolidation period. The price remained outside the upper band during the early hours, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the early morning hours, with the 00:30 ET candle (987.4–991.2) and the 01:30 ET candle (987.8–992.3) showing the highest volumes at 136.2 and 46.3 units, respectively. Notional turnover confirmed the volume surge, with 991.2–992.3 candles showing the highest turnover at 46,300 JPY and 43,997 JPY. No divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 975.8–1005.2 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at 993.3 and the 61.8% is at 988.3. The 50% level at 990.5 was tested and breached during the overnight session. The price remains above all retracement levels, suggesting continued upside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on breakout setups, using Bollinger Band and EMA crossovers to identify early-stage bull trends. It enters long on a close above the upper Bollinger Band and a 20/50 EMA crossover, with a stop-loss placed below the last 3-period low. Given today’s move, this strategy would have entered early in the morning and captured most of the 2.8% gain. The use of RSI and MACD further confirms the validity of the setup, as both indicators showed increasing bullish momentum.