Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview: Volatility, Rebound, and Key Levels

• Price opened at 951.6 and closed at 734.3, down 21.7% in 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked early with a 11.4% drop, followed by a 57.3% rebound from the low.
• Key resistance appears at 727–734.3, with support at 722–719.
• High-volume selloffs (419.8–852.8) were followed by consolidation and a sharp recovery.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions post 908.9, while MACD hints at weakening bear momentum.

The 24-hour period for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) saw a dramatic price action, opening at 951.6 and closing at 734.3 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The pair hit a high of 951.7 and a low of 419.8, marking a 56% range. Total volume amounted to 28,698.57 with a notional turnover of 14,592,178.84 JPY, indicating high engagement during the sharp decline and recovery phase.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart show a bearish breakdown from 951.6 to 419.8, punctuated by several engulfing patterns and a long bearish candle at 19:30. A strong bullish engulfing pattern at 23:45 marked the start of a 67-point rebound. The key support levels appear at 722–719, with 719.0 showing resilience during a late session test. Resistance is forming near 734.3 and 727, where price has shown difficulty in breaking through consistently.

15-Minute Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently below the current price (734.3), indicating a bearish bias. However, the 20-MA has begun to show signs of turning upward, especially in the last 12 hours. The 50-MA remains a critical level for near-term direction, currently at 713.0.

Daily Moving Averages

On a daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are all below the current price, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-day MA is at 718.0, while the 200-day MA is at 685.0—both acting as dynamic supports. A close above 734.3 could see a potential test of the 50-day MA, offering a possible pivot to more balanced momentum.

MACD and RSI Indicators

The MACD line has been negative for the majority of the 24-hour period, with a recent narrowing of the histogram indicating a possible slowdown in bear momentum. RSI has been in oversold territory (below 30) since the 19:30 time frame, which may suggest a potential bounce. However, the RSI has not shown a strong upward crossover, keeping the bearish narrative intact for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off, with the bands reaching a width of 533.9 points. Price has since retracted to the upper band at 734.3, currently holding just below. A break above could signal a shift in volatility dynamics, while a retest of the lower band at 694.4 would reinforce bear pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to 8476.39 during the selloff at 21:30, coinciding with a massive drop from 783.5 to 459.6. This was followed by a quieter consolidation phase and a sharp recovery. Notional turnover spiked in tandem with these moves, confirming price action rather than indicating divergence. Recent volume has been lower, suggesting that the market is digesting the recent action and may be preparing for a potential consolidation or breakout phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 419.8–734.3 swing, the 61.8% level is at 631.5, which was tested but not held. The 38.2% level at 685.6 is currently in play and may offer resistance. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a larger weekly swing is at 621.5—still well below current levels, suggesting that this correction may not yet be complete.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong sell-off followed by a sharp rebound, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a mean-reversion approach: entering a long position on a close above the 50-period moving average (currently 713.0) after a 30% decline within a 24-hour period. Stop-loss placement could be set just below a key support level, while the take-profit target would aim for the nearest Fibonacci level, such as 734.3. This strategy would aim to capture short-term rebounds in high-volatility scenarios, leveraging confirmed momentum signals from RSI and MACD divergences.