Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview: Volatility and Bearish Reversals in 24 Hours

• Price opened at ¥991.8 and declined to a low of ¥980.5 before rebounding to a 24-hour high of ¥1,000.5.
• Volatility surged overnight, with a sharp bearish reversal after reaching near ¥1,000.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions, followed by a pullback indicating potential bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked near key swing points, confirming price action divergence in late trading.
• Bollinger Bands expanded after a contraction, suggesting increased volatility ahead.

Opening Summary

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at ¥991.8 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET − 1, traded as high as ¥1,000.5 and as low as ¥979.2, and closed at ¥990.4 by 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume was 9,427.88, and notional turnover amounted to ¥9,398,383. The pair exhibited a strong overnight push toward ¥1,000 but faced bearish resistance and a sharp reversal in early morning trading.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a notable bearish engulfing pattern at the ¥1,000–¥997.4 range during the 1:45–2:00 AM ET session. This signaled a potential reversal after reaching overbought levels. Key support levels emerged at ¥990–985 and ¥980–984, where the pair found buying interest after sharp declines. A doji formed at ¥990.5, indicating indecision. Resistance remains near ¥995–997.5, where volume began to taper.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed bearishly near ¥996. The 20 SMA was at ¥994.2 and the 50 SMA at ¥992.3 by the close. The daily chart showed the 50/100/200 SMA lines forming a bearish alignment with the 50 SMA at ¥988.1, 100 SMA at ¥985.2, and 200 SMA at ¥983.0 — indicating a prolonged bearish bias for the coming 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI reached 73 during the overnight high, indicating overbought conditions, before dropping to 53 by the close. The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, confirming a reversal in momentum. By the final hours, the MACD histogram flattened, suggesting exhaustion in both bullish and bearish forces. This may indicate a consolidation phase ahead, but the bearish divergence remains intact unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands initially experienced a contraction between ¥996 and ¥997.5 before expanding dramatically in the 1:45–3:00 AM ET session. Price action broke below the 2σ band at ¥990.5 and closed near the midband at ¥992. This suggests increased volatility and potential for further downside, but the bands have yet to contract again — indicating ongoing price discovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key swing points, particularly near ¥1,000 and ¥990.5, where large-volume candles confirmed price action. However, during the decline below ¥990.5, volume remained moderate, indicating weaker conviction in the bearish move. The notional turnover was highest during the 01:45–02:00 AM and 02:15–02:30 AM ET periods, reflecting high trading intensity during the reversal phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the ¥991.8 to ¥1,000.5 swing showed 61.8% at ¥996.4 and 38.2% at ¥998.2. Price tested both levels before reversing. On the major daily move from ¥985.9 to ¥1,000.5, the 61.8% retracement is at ¥993.5 and the 38.2% at ¥997.1 — both of which served as temporary support/resistance levels. This suggests the market is testing key retracement levels before a potential continuation of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be developed using the identified Fibonacci levels and moving average crossovers to enter short positions when price breaks below the 20 SMA and 61.8% retracement level, with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% retracement. The MACD bearish crossover and RSI divergence can act as confirmation signals. Given the current alignment of indicators, this strategy appears to have a favorable risk-reward profile over the next 24 hours.