Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview

• Price action showed a sharp decline from 905.4 to 887.8 before rebounding to close at 899.8.
• Volatility expanded during the early part of the session with a high volume of 1,078.1.
• Momentum indicators suggest weakening buying pressure, with RSI hovering near neutral levels.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during midday, indicating a potential shift in trend.
• Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle at 17:15 ET and a bullish recovery from 887.8 to 900.5.

Price Summary and Key Metrics

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 901.5 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 899.8 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour period saw a high of 906.7 and a low of 874.5. Total traded volume was 9,721.1, and the notional turnover reached 8,821,073.8 JPY. Price action was marked by a bearish breakdown followed by a partial rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a clear bearish structure during the early session, with a sharp decline from 906.7 to 887.8. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:15 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment. Later, the price tested this level again and found support at 887.8, forming a small bullish reversal pattern. A doji candle formed at 19:15 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels include 887.8 and 894.0, while resistance levels are at 900.2 and 906.7.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is currently around 898.0, and the 50-period is at 896.3, indicating a slight bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period at 894.0 and the 200-period at 889.3. Price is currently above both, suggesting that a longer-term bullish trend may still be in place despite the recent bearish move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative, crossing below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI is currently at 52, suggesting that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold but has seen significant selling pressure. The recent bearish move has brought the RSI closer to the 50 level, which could act as a temporary support.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during midday as the price hovered near the middle band, indicating a potential consolidation phase. As the price broke out of the lower band with a large 15-minute candle, volatility increased. The price is now trading slightly above the middle band, suggesting that the short-term trend remains bearish but with potential for a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early session at 17:00 ET with a 149.04 volume candle. This coincided with a sharp decline from 897.5 to 895.3. Later, a high-volume bullish candle at 08:15 ET (406.2) confirmed the reversal attempt. Turnover also followed the volume closely, with notable spikes at key price levels. The divergence between volume and price at the end of the session suggests a possible short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from 906.7 to 874.5, the 38.2% retracement level is at 894.0 and the 61.8% is at 888.5. The price has recently bounced from the 888.5 level and is now testing the 894.0 level. On the daily chart, the 23.6% retracement level at 892.3 appears to be the next target for a potential bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the input focuses on identifying overbought/oversold conditions using RSI and volume divergence on a 15-minute chart. By combining RSI crossovers with volume confirmation, the strategy aims to capture trend reversals. The recent bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15 ET and the volume confirmation at 17:00 ET provide a suitable testing ground for such a strategy. Given the current positioning near key Fibonacci levels and the recent RSI neutralization, the strategy could be backtested for short-term reversal signals in the next 24 hours.