Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview

• Strong bullish momentum seen after a key breakout past 1000.5, with high-volume confirmation.
• Volatile price swings observed during early trading, tightening into a consolidation phase mid-day.
• Volume surged during a 9:15–10:30 ET rally, indicating strong buying pressure post-breakout.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, but price remains above key moving averages for continued support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, LPTJPY opened at 983.2, reached a high of 1030.9, a low of 975.8, and closed at 1026.5. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 4582.45, with turnover of 4,724,410.38 in Yen. The pair exhibited pronounced intraday volatility, with a late-early morning breakout triggering a sustained bullish response.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 01:45 ET (closing at 1000.3) and a key bullish reversal at 984.5. A doji emerged at 02:15 ET (close at 998.0), signaling a brief consolidation phase. The 975.8–1030.9 range established key support at 995.5 and resistance at 1015.0, with a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1018.7.

Moving Averages

A 20-period 15-min MA crossed above a 50-period MA just before 07:30 ET, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period daily MA (calculated from the 24-h close) remains below the current price, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. The 200-day MA remains unconfirmed, but the 100-day MA is likely below the current price, suggesting the trend is not yet overbought on a daily basis.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory at 07:30 ET, with a bullish divergence between price and momentum developing after 02:00 ET. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the 09:15–10:30 ET rally but failed to sustain above 75, indicating caution. A RSI divergence at 1030.9 suggests potential for a pullback or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within Bollinger Band boundaries most of the session, with a contraction observed at 02:00 ET followed by a strong expansion after 09:15 ET. The current price of 1026.5 sits just below the upper band, indicating a period of high volatility and potential exhaustion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 09:15–10:30 ET rally, with notional turnover increasing by over 1000% compared to earlier cycles. A divergence between price and volume occurred during the 15:15–16:00 ET period, with volume declining despite a small rally in price—suggesting potential short-term weakness.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-min swing from 975.8 to 1030.9, key levels include: 38.2% at 1005.9, 50% at 1003.4, and 61.8% at 1000.8. Price has tested and held above 61.8%, reinforcing bullish bias. On the daily scale, a 61.8% retracement of the 24-h swing could find support at ~990.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using a 15-minute breakout strategy based on the 20/50-period moving average cross and a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, a backtest could evaluate entry at 995.5 with a target at 1015.0 and stop-loss at 990.0. The high volume during the 09:15–10:30 ET rally supports the strategy’s viability, especially if RSI divergences and Bollinger expansion are used to time exits.