Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview for 24 Hours Through 2025-09-21

• LPTJPY fell 1.05% on heavy volume, with bearish momentum intensifying after midday ET.
• A key 1020.0 level acted as a short-term support twice, but failed to hold into the early evening.
• Volatility expanded through the morning, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing the lower band.
• RSI remains in oversold territory at 30.4, suggesting potential for near-term bounce or consolidation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 1016.3 and 1023.4 may offer key reference points for support and resistance.

The 24-hour period for Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) saw the pair open at 1022.1 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1027.0 before falling to a low of 1001.3. It closed at 1009.9 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. Total trading volume was 7,604.88 units, with notional turnover reaching 7,716,614.13 JPY. Price action was bearish with bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows in key clusters.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period displayed bearish structure, particularly in the early evening and into the night. A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 18:15 ET as LPTJPY fell from 1020.8 to 1013.2, signaling a shift in sentiment. Later, a doji formed at 23:45 ET near 1021.1, hinting at potential consolidation. Key resistances were noted at 1023.4 and 1025.7, while 1016.3 and 1020.0 acted as supports. A significant breakdown below 1020.0 appears to have confirmed a short-term bearish bias.

Moving Averages

Using 15-minute data, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed clear bearish divergence by 18:15 ET. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA, forming a death cross, while the 50 SMA continued to trend downward. This confirmed the bearish momentum and suggested a continuation of the downtrend for at least the next 12 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout most of the 24-hour period, confirming bearish momentum. The zero-line crossover occurred at 01:15 ET, where the MACD line moved below the signal line, reinforcing the downward bias. The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 30.4 by 06:00 ET and remained there for most of the day, indicating a potential bounce or consolidation could be near. However, the slow RSI line has yet to show a reversal, suggesting bearish continuation is still likely in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the morning hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price frequently testing the lower band. At 02:45 ET, the price closed at 1017.9, within 1 standard deviation below the 50-period SMA, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. A contraction in the bands was observed during the midday hours, followed by a breakout to the downside. The price remains near the lower band, which may continue to act as a resistance if the trend persists.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 18:15 ET and 22:00 ET, coinciding with large price declines. These spikes confirmed the bearish momentum, especially the 422.42 unit volume at 22:00 ET, which came as the price fell from 1025.7 to 1023.4. Turnover also saw spikes during these periods, with the highest notional turnover at 1027.0 on 22:00 ET. There was no notable divergence between price and volume, suggesting the bearish move was broadly supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1027.0–1001.3 swing, key levels at 1016.3 (61.8%) and 1023.4 (38.2%) became significant reference points. The price has tested 1023.4 multiple times but failed to hold above it, suggesting it may continue to act as a key resistance. The 1016.3 level has acted as a support twice, and a bounce from this level would signal a potential short-term consolidation or reversal attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence observed in the MACD and RSI, as well as the confirmed death cross on the 20/50 SMA, a short-term bearish strategy could be constructed using a stop-loss at 1023.4 and a take-profit at 1016.3. A backtest could include entering a short position on a breakout below 1020.0 with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio targeting 1014.0. This would align with the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band analysis, leveraging both technical and probabilistic signals for trade entry and exit.