Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• LPTJPY experienced a bearish 24-hour session, closing 1.6% lower amid rising selling pressure after a brief afternoon rally.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern mid-day and remained below the 20-period moving average on 15-minute data, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widened, with price near the lower band indicating potential for a short-term bounce or continuation.
• RSI entered oversold territory in the latter part of the session but failed to trigger a strong reversal, suggesting exhaustion in both buyers and sellers.
• Notional turnover surged during mid-to-late evening hours, suggesting potential accumulation or distribution activity at lower levels.

Market Snapshot

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 945.7 on September 23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 934.0 by the same time the next day. During this 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 956.4 and a low of 914.6. Total volume amounted to 10,743.88 units, while total notional turnover reached $9,771,766 (calculated from price × volume). The pair exhibited a clear bearish bias throughout the session, punctuated by a late-night dip before showing modest recovery into early morning.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a series of bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing candle at 17:30 ET, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside. A doji formed at 02:30 ET near support, indicating indecision. Key support levels include 930.6, 921.6, and 914.6, while resistances are visible at 938.5, 942.8, and 945.7. Price action showed a breakdown from a prior consolidation range between 931.7 and 940.5, with a strong bearish bias following the 17:30 ET sell-off.

Volatility and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands for the 15-minute timeframe widened significantly in the late hours, indicating rising volatility. Price closed near the lower band at the end of the session, suggesting possible oversold conditions but not necessarily a reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the 20SMA falling below the 50SMA in the latter half of the session, reinforcing the downward trend.

MACD and RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the last few hours, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 at 08:00 ET and stayed in oversold territory for several hours, but no strong reversal signals emerged. This indicates a lack of buying interest even at lower levels, with the market appearing to consolidate at a lower price floor.

Fibonacci Retracements and Price Projections

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 914.6 (low) to 940.5 (high), the 38.2% level is at ~926.5 and the 61.8% level at ~932.0. Price briefly tested both levels but failed to hold, suggesting further downside potential toward 921.6 or 914.6 if the trend continues. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger move from 934.6 to 938.5 is at 936.6, with a potential for consolidation or a countertrend bounce if price tests this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the 15-minute 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern or RSI below 30. Exit the trade when price closes above the 20SMA or after 3 consecutive bullish candles. This approach aligns with the bearish bias observed in today’s session and leverages both momentum and structure-based signals. Given the recent volatility and clear trend, this setup may offer favorable risk-reward in the current environment.