Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell from a 15-minute high of $6.725 to a 24-hour low of $6.392, closing near support at $6.464.
• RSI hit oversold territory and bounced off the 30-level, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 15–20 ET window, with over $33 million in turnover.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 17:15 ET low, confirming a key reversal signal.
• Price remains below its 50-period 15-minute moving average, indicating continued bearish bias.

Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) opened at $6.634 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $6.725, and closed at $6.464 as of October 4 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour low of $6.392. Total volume stood at approximately 433,938 LPT tokens, with notional turnover around $2.87 million over the period.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 17:15 ET candle (6.661 to 6.527), which confirmed a reversal after a sharp decline. A key support level emerged around $6.50–$6.52 as price bounced multiple times off this zone. A doji formed at 00:15 ET (6.656), suggesting indecision and a potential short-term turning point. A strong bearish bias persisted into the early morning hours, with price failing to reclaim key resistance at $6.65–$6.66 for the duration of the period.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages remained in bearish alignment, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic overhead resistance. On a broader daily timeframe, price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend. The 20-period MA on 15-minute data crossed below the 50-period line (death cross) during the 17:30–19:45 ET window, confirming a bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the zero line and remained in negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming on the histogram. RSI reached 29 at the 08:45 ET candle, signaling oversold conditions. Price then bounced off this level before resuming the downward trajectory, indicating a potential short-term rebound is possible but bearish momentum remains intact. RSI is now rising toward 40, suggesting a temporary pause in selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded notably during the 17–18 ET hour window, with the Bollinger Band width reaching a 24-hour peak. Price traded below the 20-period lower band for over four hours, indicating oversold conditions and a possible bounce back toward the middle band. The 10:00–10:45 ET window saw a contraction in volatility, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown was brewing. The current price is within the band but remains close to the lower boundary.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 17:15 ET candle, where 33,794.53 LPT tokens were traded, marking the largest single candle volume of the period. This coincided with the bearish engulfing pattern and a significant price drop. Turnover spiked to $107,000 during this candle, confirming bearish conviction. The late-night volume, particularly between 2–4 AM ET, was relatively subdued despite continued downward movement, indicating a potential exhaustion in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute timeframe, price retraced to the 61.8% level at $6.53–$6.54 after a sharp decline from $6.725 to $6.527. This level provided temporary resistance, with price bouncing back toward the 50% level at $6.627–$6.635. On the daily chart, price is near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent larger downtrend, suggesting a possible pause in the decline if bullish momentum builds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the identified bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI levels as buy signals with a stop loss below the 17:15 ET low. Given the price’s current proximity to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and RSI approaching 40, a bullish breakout above the 50-period moving average could trigger a long position, with a target near the 50% retracement level of $6.627–$6.635. This strategy would aim to capture short-to-medium term rallies amid a broader bearish trend, while using Bollinger Band expansion as a volatility filter to avoid false signals.