Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price tested key resistance at $6.48 before retracing lower, closing near $6.227.
• Volume spiked during the early sell-off, with turnover exceeding $400,000 at the lows.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the rally, later flashing oversold at the 24-hour low.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, indicating heightened volatility.
• A potential bullish reversal pattern formed near $6.225, aligned with Fibonacci support.

Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) opened at $6.347 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $6.497 before retreating to a 24-hour low of $6.180. The pair closed at $6.227 as of October 9 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 88,692.12, with notional turnover of approximately $542,000.

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick pattern revealed a bearish exhaustion phase after the initial rally. A key resistance cluster formed around $6.43–$6.48, where price stalled multiple times. A strong bearish divergence between price and RSI emerged at the highs, signaling waning momentum. The 15-minute chart displayed a long upper shadow at $6.485–$6.497, suggesting rejection at that level.

Support and Resistance Levels

Price found support at $6.225–$6.25 during the final phase of the 24-hour window, forming a potential bullish reversal structure. Resistance remains concentrated at $6.35 and $6.43, which were tested and rejected on multiple occasions. A doji appeared at $6.320, signaling indecision near critical support. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below price, reinforcing bearish bias in the short term.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line crossed below the signal line near $6.45, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the morning rally, then dropped sharply into oversold territory below 30 by late evening, indicating exhaustion. This bearish divergence between MACD and price may signal a continuation of the downward trend. A bounce above $6.25 would be needed to reestablish bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly as price fell from $6.48 to $6.225, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a $0.03 range to a $0.26 range. At the time of writing, price resides in the lower third of the bands, suggesting lingering bearish pressure. A strong break above the upper band at $6.38 would indicate a potential reversal, but that would require a sharp and sustained move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the early sell-off between $6.48 and $6.225, with the largest volume spike recorded at $6.18–$6.22 during the October 9 morning hours. Notional turnover also spiked as price approached key support levels. The final 15-minute candle closed at $6.227 with high volume, suggesting accumulation could be taking place near $6.225. A divergence between volume and price movement is observed near $6.34–$6.35, where volume contracted despite a price rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the $6.18–$6.497 swing include 61.8% at $6.323 and 38.2% at $6.365. Price briefly held at the 61.8% level but failed to establish a solid rebound. The 50% retracement at $6.338 may act as a pivot point in the coming 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA lies near $6.30, offering potential support or resistance depending on the direction of the next move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, and the key support levels identified at $6.225–$6.25, a potential backtest strategy could be built around a “bounce-and-breakout” pattern. A long entry at a 1.5% stop above $6.225, with a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($6.365), could be tested. Short-term traders might also consider a sell entry on a break below $6.225, with a stop just above $6.25 to manage risk. This hypothesis aligns with the current price structure and indicators, offering a directional bias with defined risk parameters.