Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price dipped nearly 5% from the 24-hour high near $7.09 to below $6.77, marking a strong bearish trend.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions earlier, followed by a divergence and bearish crossover, hinting at reversal.
• Volume spiked over 50,000 at the lows, confirming bearish conviction; Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility.
• Key support found near $6.83–$6.77, with resistance levels forming at $7.05 and $7.08.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential bounce near $6.86–$6.90, but trend remains bearish for now.

The 24-hour period for Livepeer/Tether (LPTUSDT) began at $7.003 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $7.09 before closing at $6.771 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. Total volume traded was 263,242.16, and notional turnover amounted to $1,851,776.44. The pair displayed bearish momentum and a sharp drop in price after midday on 2025-09-14.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several bearish candlestick patterns, including a strong hanging man and bearish engulfing at the peak near $7.09 and $7.08, signaling possible trend exhaustion. A doji formed near $7.043, hinting at indecision before the sell-off. Key support levels emerged at $6.83 (61.8% Fib), $6.90 (38.2% Fib), and $6.77 (swing low). Resistance appears to be at $7.05 (50% Fib) and $7.08 (daily high).

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Moving Averages & Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are bearishly aligned, with price now below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA are also bearish, reinforcing the downtrend. Bollinger Bands show volatility expansion from a tight consolidation period earlier in the session, with price currently near the lower band, a sign of oversold pressure.

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Momentum & Breadth

The MACD crossed below the signal line after a brief overbought phase, forming a bearish crossover. RSI fell into oversold territory, but has shown no immediate reversal sign. Volume increased sharply during the decline, especially after 07:45 ET, when a bearish breakout below $6.94 led to a sharp drop into the $6.70s. Notional turnover spiked during this period, confirming bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key swing high at $7.09 to the low at $6.77 suggest critical psychological levels. The 38.2% retracement at $6.90 and 61.8% at $6.83 are key for short-term bounces, but a break below $6.77 could trigger further extension toward $6.68. The 50% Fib at $6.93 may also see renewed pressure if a bullish reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy leverages MACD crossovers and RSI divergences to identify potential reversal points. Given today’s bearish divergence and confirmed MACD bearish crossover, a short entry at $6.90 with a stop above $7.03 and a target at $6.80 may offer a favorable risk-reward. A countertrend long could be considered only if price retests the $6.83–$6.90 Fib levels with bullish confirmation (e.g., volume contraction on decline and bullish engulfing). This strategy aligns well with today’s structure and could be backtested using the defined price swings and volume patterns.