Livepeer (LPT) Bearish Technical Setup and Key Support Levels: A Deep Dive into Order Flow and Retracements

Livepeer (LPT) has entered a critical juncture in its price action, with a bearish technical setup dominating the short-to-midterm outlook. As of September 28, 2025, LPT closed at $5.9960, marking a 5.4% decline from its September 22 high of $6.3066, according to the Yahoo Finance price history. This deterioration aligns with broader macroeconomic headwinds in the crypto market, including a Fear & Greed Index score of 48 (neutral) and a 14.1% weekly drop in altcoin dominance, per the CoinMarketCap price prediction. Below, we dissect the bearish dynamics through order flow-driven strategies and retracement analysis, identifying pivotal support levels and potential reversal scenarios.

Bearish Technical Setup: Order Flow and Moving Averages

LPT's price structure reveals a descending consolidation phase, with the 50-day moving average on the daily chart falling since September 8, 2025, while the 200-day MA remains in a longer-term uptrend, per the Changelly projection. This divergence signals weakening near-term momentum despite bullish fundamentals like AI video infrastructure expansion. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-day MA is rising but remains below the current price, while the MACD line shows a slowing bullish trend, reflecting buyer fatigue, as noted by Cryptopolitan.

Order flow data underscores this bearish bias. Institutional activity has been concentrated in the $6.55–$6.80 range, with traders treating this zone as a critical inflection point for momentum, according to a Gate analysis. However, LPT's failure to break above $7.30—a key resistance level—has led to increased bearish positioning. The Commodity Channel Index (20) and Awesome Oscillator (5, 34) remain neutral, but the VWMA (10) suggests a sell bias, amplifying short-term downward pressure, as shown in the CoinCheckup analysis.

Key Support Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

LPT is currently testing a multi-month support zone between $3.85–$5.00, a historical demand area that has previously triggered major rebounds, as highlighted in a CCN analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is deeply oversold, reaching levels that often precede reversals, per the CoinCodex price prediction. However, a breakdown below $5.00 would invalidate the bullish case and open the door to further declines toward $3.85, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level acting as a critical psychological barrier, according to a Fibonacci guide.

Fibonacci extensions provide additional context for potential price targets. If LPT holds above $5.00, it could retest the 0.236 retracement level at $9.45 and the 0.382 level at $12.41, as noted in the Messari report. These levels represent prior resistance-turned-support and could attract buyers if the broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a failure to hold above $5.00 may extend the downtrend toward $3.85, with the 61.8% retracement level ($4.50–$4.70) offering a potential intermediate floor, per the Investing.com technicals.

Institutional Dynamics and Staking Yields

Institutional confidence in LPT remains mixed. While platforms like Bitvavo offer staking yields of up to 32.8% APY, locking supply and reducing sell pressure, CoinMarketCap's latest updates highlight that staking is only one of several on-chain factors affecting liquidity. The top address holds 26.94% of the total supply, creating centralization risks, according to the Traders Union forecast. This concentration could exacerbate volatility if large holders decide to liquidate positions near break-even levels (~$8.80), a scenario suggested by CryptoQuant data.

Moreover, 90% of LPT holders are currently underwater, with a MVRV ratio of -31.17%, per Coinglass metrics, indicating significant sell pressure if the price rebounds to cost-basis thresholds. This dynamic contrasts with the protocol's on-chain fundamentals, which show a 5% QoQ increase in demand-side fees driven by AI-native workloads, as reported in the Invezz report. However, these improvements may take time to translate into price action amid a bearish macro environment.

Strategic Implications for Traders

For order flow-driven traders, the $6.55–$6.80 range represents a high-probability entry zone for short-term longs, contingent on a breakout above $7.30, as that CCN analysis suggests. Stop-loss placements below $5.90 would be prudent to mitigate downside risk. Conversely, bearish traders may target $5.50 as a key level, with the 61.8% retracement zone acting as a dynamic shorting opportunity.

Conclusion

Livepeer's technical setup reflects a tug-of-war between bearish macro forces and bullish on-chain fundamentals. While the $3.85–$5.00 support zone offers a potential reversal catalyst, traders must remain cautious of institutional selling and broader altcoin weakness. A sustained break above $7.30 could reignite the bullish case, but until then, the path of least resistance remains downward. Investors should monitor staking yields, governance upgrades, and AI video adoption metrics for catalysts that could shift the balance.