Live Nation's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on Venue Performance, Ticketing Strategy, and Secondary Market Impact

Date of Call: November 4, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: Revenue up 11% YOY
• Operating Margin: Operating income up 24% YOY; AOI up 14% YOY

Guidance:

• Expect 2026 to be a very strong stadium year globally; amphitheaters and arenas are expected to rebound.
• Ticket sales for 2026 are up double digits and much of the event-related deferred revenue will convert into next year.
• Management sees no current mitigating factors to AOI growth but will provide formal guidance in February.
• Ticketmaster anti-scalping measures may impose a low- to mid-single-digit AOI headwind to Ticketmaster next year.

Business Commentary:

• Strong Financial Performance in Q3 2025:
• Live Nation reported revenue up 11%, operating income up 24%, and AOI increase of 14% for Q3 2025.
• The growth was driven by a strong global diversified business, with notable contributions from international markets, particularly in Mexico, Latin America, and Europe, where stadiums showed a 60% increase in activity.

• Venue Performance and Show Pipeline:
• While stadiums experienced significant growth with a 60% increase in activity, there was underperformance in amphitheaters and arenas this year.

• The company anticipates a strong rebound in 2026, with a robust pipeline of shows planned for both international and U.S. markets, including amphitheaters, arenas, and stadiums.

• Ticketmaster and Anti-Scalper Initiatives:

• Ticketmaster's primary focus remains on helping artists price and sell their tickets, with secondary tickets representing a low single-digit percentage of revenue.
• Live Nation announced measures to combat ticket scalping, including shutting down the Trade Desk platform and implementing identity verification tools, which have led to the cancellation of over 1 million accounts.

• International Fan Growth and Venue Nation Expansion:
• International fan count is on track to surpass the U.S. for the first time, reflecting the shift towards global growth.

• Live Nation's Venue Nation expansion continues with a strong pipeline of new venues, expected to support continued double-digit fan growth for the next few years.

• Sponsorship and Corporate Appetite:

• Live Nation's sponsorship revenue grew 14%, driven by increased inventory and a strong return on investment for marketers.
• Increased demand for live events, particularly in sports and music, has contributed to ongoing growth in sponsorship sales.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management: "we had revenue up 11%, operating up 24%, AOI 14%" and repeatedly described a strong show pipeline and double-digit ticket-sales growth for 2026; commentary: "we look like amphitheaters, arenas and stadiums are going to have a very strong year next year" and "no mitigating factors" to growth.

Q&A:

• Question from Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners, LLC): First, going into 2025, it seemed like stadiums were strong but amps and arenas underperformed — can you explain what happened with amphitheaters and arenas this year and why you expect a rebound in 2026?
  Response: Live Nation: The business is diversified; amps underperformed cyclically because many artists prioritized stadiums this year, not structural issues — strong 2026 pipeline of content and venues should drive amph/arena rebound and continued record attendance/AOI.

• Question from Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners, LLC): On Ticketmaster you’ve cracked down on scalpers after the FTC suit — what actions have you taken, expected impacts on LYV financials and why are changes focused more on concerts than sports?
  Response: Ticketmaster (Berchtold): Shutting down the Trade Desk tool and deploying identity verification (canceled >1M accounts); sports secondary behaves differently; expect low- to mid-single-digit AOI impact to Ticketmaster next year but no change to long-term primary-focused strategy.

• Question from Stephen Laszczyk (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Can you break down drivers of concert-segment AOI growth in 3Q — attendance, stadiums, amps, arenas and operated-venue mix?
  Response: Berchtold: Concert AOI rose ~$40M on just over 1M incremental fans, driven by ~120 more stadium shows (balanced U.S./international) and higher profitability in venues we operate; ~250 fewer amp shows and arenas roughly flat.

• Question from Stephen Laszczyk (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Any update on dialogues with the FTC and DOJ and whether recent developments create common ground on remedies?
  Response: Berchtold: Confident in Live Nation's legal position against the FTC; FTC action stalled by government shutdown; DOJ case is advanced (discovery/expert reports mostly complete) with trial date reaffirmed and Google remedies decision reduces breakup risk.

• Question from Cameron Mansson-Perrone (Morgan Stanley, Research Division): How is the ticketing competitive landscape evolving and does it increase appetite for international capture?
  Response: Berchtold: Not either/or — focus on global expansion where Ticketmaster is underpenetrated (Latin America, Asia, parts of Europe); North America is competitive but company continues to win and sees international as a major growth opportunity.

• Question from Cameron Mansson-Perrone (Morgan Stanley, Research Division): Deferred revenue showed healthy growth — how should we think about that for 4Q versus 2026?
  Response: Berchtold: Most of the deferred revenue is expected to flow into 2026 (Q4 is cyclically small); deferred growth aligns with double-digit increases in tickets on sale and venue additions for next year.

• Question from David Karnovsky (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): Can you refresh the venue pipeline affecting 2026 and whether Venue Nation fan growth (~7M) can be sustained next year?
  Response: Rapino: Pipeline intact and progress made on openings; more detail at Investor Day, but management expects to sustain the previously outlined venue-driven fan growth going forward.

• Question from David Karnovsky (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): Update on stadium pipeline for next year given prior FIFA concerns?
  Response: Rapino: FIFA/World Cup fears haven't materialized; early indicators point to another very strong stadium year globally in 2026.

• Question from Robert Fishman (MoffettNathanson LLC): International fan count is on track to surpass the U.S. — how will the mix shift evolve and how does that support double-digit AOI growth in 2026?
  Response: Rapino: International share will continue to grow across concerts, ticketing and sponsorships as many markets are underpenetrated, supporting continued AOI upside.

• Question from Robert Fishman (MoffettNathanson LLC): You hired a new Global President for Ticketmaster — how will this help with AI transformation?
  Response: Rapino: New hire brings technical and AI expertise to lead platform-wide AI efforts while existing leadership remains focused on international expansion and standardization.

• Question from Logan Angress (Wolfe Research, LLC) on behalf of Peter Supino: Given the strong leading indicators, is it fair to assume double-digit AOI growth next year or are there mitigating factors?
  Response: Berchtold: Leading indicators are very positive and there are no current mitigating factors, but the company will wait until February (full data set) before issuing formal guidance.

• Question from Jason Bazinet (Citigroup Inc., Research Division): Are you seeing any bimodal consumer behavior — high-end spending up but low-end consumers pulling back?
  Response: Rapino: No evidence of a low-end pullback; demand is broad across venue types and demographics and shows on sale for next year are selling strongly.

• Question from Eric Handler (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): How is corporate appetite for sponsorships evolving?
  Response: Rapino: Sponsorships continue double-digit growth (14% reported), driven by more global inventory from new venues and international expansion; marketers view live events as high ROI.

• Question from Ian Moore (Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division): Can you stratify food & beverage growth across venue types and premium offerings?
  Response: Rapino: Strong F&B growth across amphitheaters, festivals, owned clubs and operated venues, with gains in front-of-house, VIP/hospitality and ancillary revenue streams.

Contradiction Point 1

Venue Performance and Market Conditions

It involves differing perspectives on the performance of different venue types and market conditions, which can impact investor expectations and strategic planning.

What explains the underperformance of amphitheaters and arenas this year compared to stadiums, and what factors will drive their strong recovery in 2026? - Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners)

2025Q3: Stadiums were up 60%, and international venues like the Rogers Stadium in Toronto contributed to this growth. - Michael Rapino(CEO)

What drove AOI per fan growth in the concert segment this quarter? - Cameron Mansson-Perrone (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q1: Looking ahead, we expect to deliver another record year for Live Nation Concerts, driven by a robust pipeline of 20,000 shows and fan demand that represents opportunities across all venue types. - Joe Berchtold(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Ticketing Market Competition and Strategy

It involves differing perspectives on the competitive landscape and strategies in the ticketing market, which is a critical part of Live Nation's business.

How do you assess the competitiveness of the U.S. ticketing industry and how are you addressing these changes? - Cameron Mansson-Perrone(Morgan Stanley, Research Division)

2025Q3: We view it as a global business and are underdeveloped in international markets like Latin America and Asia. We've been focusing on building out our presence in these markets with our best ticketing platform. North America is competitive, but we continue to win business due to our platform's strength. - Joe Berchtold(CFO)

What is the outlook for Ticketmaster's growth beyond 2025? - Brandon A Ross(LightShed Partners)

2025Q2: Ticketmaster's growth is driven by international expansion and market share growth. B2B services and pricing tools will continue to contribute, and Ticketmaster's ad platform remains important. - Joe Berchtold(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Venue Performance and Demand Trends

It involves differing perspectives on the performance of different venue types, which could impact growth expectations for Live Nation's concert segment.

What caused the underperformance of amphitheaters and arenas in 2025 despite strong stadium performance, and what factors will drive their recovery in 2026? - Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners, LLC)

2025Q3: Stadiums were up 60%, and international venues like the Rogers Stadium in Toronto contributed to this growth. - Michael Rapino(CEO)

How are consumer demand trends impacted by the increased stadium supply this year? How does the return to stadiums affect concert segment margins and AOI growth? - Stephen Laszczyk (Goldman Sachs)

2024Q4: We've had a strong start to the year, with high demand for stadium shows. Sell-through rates are over 75% in the first week, higher than previous years. No slowdown in demand. - Michael Rapino(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Secondary Ticketing Market and Anti-Scalping Measures

It involves differing statements on the impact of secondary ticketing and anti-scalping measures, which can influence investor perceptions of the company's strategic initiatives.

What factors caused the underperformance of amphitheaters and arenas this year, and what indicators suggest a strong rebound in 2026? - Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners)

2025Q3: The strength of Live Nation lies in its global diversified business. Although stadiums overdelivered this year, we've seen various venues dominate in different years. Stadiums were up 60%, and international venues like the Rogers Stadium in Toronto contributed to this growth. - Michael Rapino(CEO)

Can you explain the factors behind Ticketmaster's Q1 revenue and AOI decline despite high ticket sales and 2025 supply? - Brandon Ross (LightShed Partners)

2025Q1: The decrease in Ticketmaster's Q1 revenue and AOI was due to less reported activity from other promoters and non-concert categories. Live Nation concerts were up, but other categories, such as sports and arts, decreased. The increase in deferred revenue suggests future growth. The timing of sales is later than last year, with strong activity expected in H2, impacting quarterly reporting. FX remains a headwind. - Joe Berchtold(CFO)