Lithium Argentina AG’s Q4 2025 Call: RIGI Delays, Battery-Grade Timelines, and Cost Guidance Clash

Date of Call: Mar 23, 2026

Guidance:

• Production for 2026 expected to be 35,000 to 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate.
• EBITDA for 2026 expected to be around $460 million using a lithium price of $20,000 per tonne.
• Annual sustaining capital requirements expected to be $15 million to $20 million.
• Strong cash conversion expected due to accelerated depreciation and low sustaining capital.

Business Commentary:

Operational Performance and Cost Reduction:

• Lithium Argentina reported production of over 34,000 tonnes for 2025, reaching the high end of their guidance range, with fourth-quarter production at 97% capacity.
• Fourth-quarter operating cash cost decreased to $5,600 per tonne, a 30% reduction since Q1 2024.
• The improvement in operational performance and cost reduction was driven by optimizations in brine management, well field optimization, process stability, and reduced reagent usage.

Financial Performance and Market Position:

• Despite a low lithium price environment in 2025, Cauchari-Olaroz generated $56 million in adjusted EBITDA.
• The operation distributed $85 million of cash, with $42 million used for Lithium Argentina shares.
• The financial stability is attributed to the operational efficiencies and strong market demand, particularly in energy storage systems.

Growth Strategy and Project Development:

• Lithium Argentina aims to scale production from approximately 40,000 tonnes to over 200,000 tonnes of lithium chemicals.
• Progress was made on the consolidation of PPG and the submission of RIGI applications for both PPG and Stage 2.
• The growth strategy is supported by a strong investment environment in Argentina and increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management highlighted 'exceptionally well' operations, 'strong financial results,' and 'significant recovery in lithium prices.' They noted 'world-class teams,' 'proven track record,' 'two of the largest and highest quality lithium brine resources globally,' and being 'in a very strong position to build off what we have already accomplished.'

Q&A:

• Question from Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity): How should we expect cash costs to evolve in 2026, and is $5,600 a tonne the new base case?
  Response: Cash costs are expected to be sub-$6,000, with $5,600 a good indicator, supported by structural cost changes and a 17% reduction in long-term estimates to $5,400 per tonne.

• Question from Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity): Could you bridge the Chinese benchmark price to the expected realized price of $17,000 a tonne?
  Response: Pricing is based on battery-quality lithium carbonate outside China, excluding VAT, with mid-single-digit quality adjustments applied.

• Question from Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets): How has recent market volatility impacted risk factors for Phase 2 and PPG, and are objectives with Ganfeng aligned?
  Response: Minimal operational impact from Middle East volatility; strong alignment with Ganfeng on growth, with Stage 2 and PPG financing plans targeting non-equity financing and joint control maintained.

• Question from Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets): What is the DLE plan for Cauchari?
  Response: DLE technology is part of Stage 2 development, with Ganfeng leading trials; conventional technology currently delivers strong cost advantages, but new tech must improve CapEx and OpEx.

• Question from Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank): What are pricing expectations for 2026 and the financing environment for expansion?
  Response: Pricing may remain volatile but is expected around current levels, supported by strong ESS demand; balance sheet is strong with $95M cash, and growth financing plans are distinct for Stage 2 and PPG.

• Question from Benjamin Isaacson (Scotiabank): Is sub-$6,000 cash cost a competitive advantage unique to LAR?
  Response: Argentina can be a low-cost producer, but LAR's achievement is unique due to resource quality and plant design, with brine being a resilient, low-cost source outside China.

• Question from Benjamin Isaacson (Scotiabank): Can Stage 1 be debottlenecked to 45,000 tonnes?
  Response: Possibly with further investment, but preference is for Stage 2 under RIGI framework to capture cash flow and fiscal benefits.

• Question from Benjamin Isaacson (Scotiabank): How are sodium batteries evolving and what is their impact on lithium demand?
  Response: Sodium-ion is a legitimate risk at very high lithium prices but not a material threat at current levels; LFP maintains significant advantages in energy density and cycle life.

• Question from Mohamed Sidibe (National Bank): Are reagent prices impacting costs due to the conflict in the Middle East?
  Response: Very limited impact; reagent inputs are not exposed to Middle East shipping disruptions, and any diesel-related cost increases are minimal.

Contradiction Point 1

Project Sequencing and RIGI Application Timeline

Conflicting statements on the timing and status of RIGI applications for PPG and Cauchari-Olaroz Phase 2.

Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets) - Joel Jackson (BMO Capital Markets)

20260323-2025 Q4: Growth ambitions with Ganfeng are aligned... The focus is on a financing plan... with strong engagement from potential partners. - Sam Pigott(CFO)

How has recent global market volatility impacted your strategy for Cauchari-Olaroz Phase 2, including its risk factors, and do your objectives align with Ganfeng's? - Katie Lachapelle (Canaccord Genuity)

20251110-2025 Q3: After the environmental permit... RIGI application submission (Q1 2026, approval expected in a few months)... - Sam Pigott(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Product Quality and Timeline to Reach Battery-Grade Lithium

Inconsistency regarding the timeline for delivering battery-grade lithium product.

Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity) - Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity)

20260323-2025 Q4: Pricing is based on the market price for battery-quality lithium carbonate outside of China... - Sam Pigott(CFO)

What are your cash cost expectations for 2026, and how do you bridge the average Chinese benchmark price of $21,000 a tonne in Q1 to the expected realized price of $17,000 a tonne? - Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank)

20251110-2025 Q3: The vision is to supply battery-grade product directly to global customers by the end of 2026 or 2027... - Sam Pigott(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Cash Cost Expectations for 2026

Contradiction on the expected run-rate cash cost for the business.

Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity) - Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity)

20260323-2025 Q4: Expect some quarterly variability, but sub-$6,000, around $5,600, is a good indication for 2026. - Sam Pigott(CEO)

How do you expect cash costs to evolve in 2026 given the new long-term goal of $5,400 per tonne? - Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank)

2025Q2: The cost-saving trend is expected to continue into 2026. While there may be some volatility through 2025, the cost-saving trend is expected to continue into 2026. - Sam Pigott(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Pricing Discount Outlook

Contradiction on the expected duration and nature of pricing discounts.

Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity) - Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity)

20260323-2025 Q4: Pricing is based on the market price for battery-quality lithium carbonate outside of China... Adjustments for quality are around mid-single digits from the reference price, which is what the company is currently realizing. - Sam Pigott(CEO)

How does the company bridge the gap between the average Chinese benchmark price of $21,000/tonne in Q1 and the expected realized price of $17,000/tonne? - Mohamed Sidibe (National Bank Financial)

2025Q2: The ~$2,000 discount is expected to continue through 2025 and into 2026. - Sam Pigott(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Long-Term Cash Cost Target

Contradiction on the baseline for achieving sub-$6,000 per tonne costs.

Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity) - Anthony Taglieri (Canaccord Genuity)

20260323-2025 Q4: The long-term cost estimate at full capacity has been updated to $5,400 per tonne (a 17% decrease from $6,500 a year ago). Expect some quarterly variability, but sub-$6,000, around $5,600, is a good indication for 2026. - Sam Pigott(CFO)

How should we expect cash costs to evolve in 2026 toward the $5,400/tonne goal, and is $5,600/tonne the new base case for Q1 given 35,000–40,000 tonnes of annual production? - Corinne Blanchard (Deutsche Bank)

2024Q4: The $6,500 per tonne long-term estimate from the technical report is a baseline, but the company is not satisfied with that. - Sam Pigott(CFO)