LAC Soars 94.7% on Trump Admin's Equity Stake Talks: A Game-Changer for U.S. Lithium Independence?

Summary
• Lithium Americas (LAC) surges 94.7% intraday to $5.98, defying a 3.07 previous close
• Trump administration seeks up to 10% stake in Thacker Pass project, a $2.2B DOE loan renegotiation
• Thacker Pass, North America's largest lithium deposit, to produce 40,000 metric tons annually by 2028

Lithium Americas has ignited a historic rally as the Trump administration's proposed equity stake in its Thacker Pass project sparks a 94.7% intraday surge. With the stock trading at $5.98—well above its 52-week high of $6.30—the move reflects a strategic pivot in U.S. critical mineral policy. The Thacker Pass project, a cornerstone of domestic EV battery supply chains, now faces a potential government-backed lifeline amid renegotiated loan terms.

Government Equity Stake Ignites Lithium Americas' Record Surge
The Trump administration's reported pursuit of a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas has catalyzed a 94.7% intraday surge. This move, tied to renegotiating a $2.2B Department of Energy loan for the Thacker Pass mine, signals a strategic shift toward securing U.S. lithium independence. The administration seeks to mitigate taxpayer risk by pushing repayment delays into later years, a precedent seen in its 15% stake in MP Materials and 10% stake in Intel. Thacker Pass, projected to produce 40,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate annually—enough for 800,000 EVs—positions LAC as a linchpin in the Biden-Trump administrations' joint push to counter China's 65% lithium refining dominance.

Lithium Sector Rally Gains Momentum as LAC Leads Charge
LAC's 94.7% surge dwarfs sector leader Albemarle (ALB)'s 2.5% intraday gain, underscoring the unique catalyst of direct government equity involvement. While ALB's Silver Peak mine produces just 5,000 metric tons annually, Thacker Pass's scale—eight times larger—has redefined U.S. lithium ambitions. The administration's stake in LAC mirrors its MP Materials deal, which boosted the rare earth miner's stock by 50% post-announcement. This interventionist approach signals a broader trend of public-private partnerships to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on LAC's Volatility
• MACD: 0.096 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.0705, Histogram: 0.0255
• RSI: 58.54 (neutral), 52W Range: 2.31–6.30
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 3.35, Middle 3.00, Lower 2.65
• 200D MA: 2.926 (well below current price)

LAC's technicals suggest a breakout from a long-term range, with the 52W high of $6.30 acting as a key resistance. The 58.54 RSI indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram's positive divergence hints at sustained momentum. For options, two contracts stand out:

• LAC20251017C5.5 (Call): Strike $5.50, Expiry 10/17, IV 183.21%, Delta 0.656, Theta -0.0258, Gamma 0.1319, Turnover $7.7M
- High leverage (4.57%) and gamma (0.1319) suggest strong price sensitivity. A 5% upside to $6.27 would yield a payoff of $0.77 per share, aligning with the 52W high.
• LAC20260116C5.5 (Call): Strike $5.50, Expiry 1/16/2026, IV 152.91%, Delta 0.703, Theta -0.0084, Gamma 0.0679, Turnover $1.45M
- Moderate IV and high delta (0.703) position this for long-term gains if Thacker Pass's 2028 timeline accelerates. A 5% move would generate $0.77 per share, with time decay (-0.0084) manageable over 4.5 months.

Aggressive bulls may consider LAC20251017C5.5 for a short-term play on the 52W high breakout, while LAC20260116C5.5 offers a balanced bet on sustained momentum.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
After scanning every LAC-N trading session from 2022-01-01 through 2025-09-24, the data show zero instances in which the stock’s intraday high exceeded its open by 95 % or more. Because no qualifying events exist, an “after-event” back-test cannot be executed—the back-test engine requires at least one event date.Common next steps:1. Relax the surge threshold – e.g., 50 %, 40 % or another level you consider meaningful – and re-run the search. 2. Run a different style of test (e.g., a strategy back-test on momentum, mean-reversion, etc.). 3. Extend the historical window further back (pre-2022) to look for rarer 95 % jumps.Let me know which adjustment you’d prefer and I’ll set up the revised analysis immediately.

LAC's Historic Move: A Strategic Bet on U.S. Lithium Dominance
LAC's 94.7% surge reflects a pivotal moment in U.S. critical mineral strategy, with the Trump administration's equity stake transforming Thacker Pass into a geopolitical asset. While the 52W high of $6.30 remains a near-term target, investors must monitor loan renegotiation terms and Canadian regulatory approvals. Sector leader Albemarle (ALB), up 2.5%, highlights the broader lithium rally, but LAC's government-backed momentum sets it apart. Watch for a $6.30 breakout or a pullback to the 52W low of $2.31 to validate the trade. For now, LAC20251017C5.5 offers the highest conviction play on a 52W high challenge.