Litecoin/Yen Market Overview

Summary
• LTCJPY opened at ¥16480, hit a high of ¥16796, and closed at ¥15787 amid a volatile 24-hour session.
• A large-volume sell-off in the 21:00–00:00 ET timeframe drove a -6.3% price drop.
• RSI and MACD both signaled weakening momentum after 12:00 ET, indicating bearish exhaustion.

Opening Summary

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at ¥16480 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of ¥16796 before closing at ¥15787 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour window, the total traded volume was 993.867 units, with a total notional turnover of ¥15,518,377. The price action displayed strong intraday volatility, marked by a bearish breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple significant patterns. A Bullish Engulfing formed early in the session (17:00–17:15 ET), confirming a short-term reversal. However, the trend reversed again at 21:15 ET, forming a Bearish Harami, signaling indecision and a likely downward continuation. Key support levels emerged at ¥16250, ¥16000, and ¥15787 (current low), with resistance at ¥16500 and ¥16700. A Bearish Flag pattern formed between ¥16796 and ¥16322, indicating exhaustion after a sharp move higher.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum shifted bearishly as the 20-EMA (¥16200) crossed below the 50-EMA (¥16500), forming a death cross around 21:30 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-SMA (¥16300) acted as a dynamic resistance, with the 200-SMA at ¥16150 providing a key support. The 100-SMA at ¥16240 also failed to hold, increasing the probability of a continuation toward ¥15500.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero after 20:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Divergence between price and MACD was visible during the early sell-off, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. The RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30) near ¥15800, hinting at potential support. However, the lack of follow-through buying indicated caution, with RSI failing to recover above 40 for the remainder of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the session as the price moved from the upper band (¥16796) to the lower band (¥15836), suggesting a period of high uncertainty. The narrowing of bands between ¥16300–16400 earlier in the session hinted at a potential breakout, which failed to materialize due to weak follow-through. The price closed near the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key bearish phases of the session, particularly between 21:00 and 23:45 ET, confirming the breakdown. Total notional turnover of ¥15.5M was concentrated in the second half of the session, with the largest spike at 21:45 ET (¥1.0M). Price and volume aligned in the sell-off, but divergence appeared in the final hours, suggesting reduced conviction in further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the ¥15836–16796 swing, the 61.8% retracement (¥16200) failed to hold, suggesting bearish momentum could persist. The 38.2% level (¥16330) acted as resistance before the final breakdown. Daily-level Fibs also showed the price closing near the 61.8% level of a prior bullish move, adding to bearish signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting results for the “Buy LTCJPY on Bullish Engulfing, hold 3 days” strategy over 2022–2025 showed a total return of 64.6% with an impressive Sharpe ratio of 1.72. The average win rate of 8.9% and average P/L of +3.19% indicate the strategy is robust despite the high volatility of the pair. However, the bearish momentum seen in today’s session suggests that such a strategy may face challenges unless paired with additional risk controls or trend filters. The recent appearance of a Bullish Engulfing pattern at the session's start aligns with the strategy's logic, but it was quickly invalidated by subsequent bearish formations, highlighting the importance of confirming patterns with volume and price action.