Litecoin/Yen Market Overview

• Price surged from 17,665 to 18,254 before consolidating near 18,072.
• High momentum seen in midday rally, with RSI near overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded during the morning session, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Turnover spiked during 21:00–22:00 ET, confirming bullish price action.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 18,168–18,254, suggesting further upward bias.

LTCJPY opened at 17,665 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 18,254 and a low of 17,553, closing at 18,072 as of 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 412.795 LTC, with a turnover of approximately ¥7,459,134,637.55. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias in the early hours before retracing into consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a key bullish engulfing pattern at 18,168–18,254, indicating a potential reversal from a downtrend. A series of higher highs and higher lows formed after 21:00 ET, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. A notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 18,118 and 61.8% at 18,006 acted as dynamic support levels. Resistance is expected at the 20-period EMA (18,185) and the 50-period EMA (18,145), both of which were tested and held early in the consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the price closed just below the 20-period EMA (18,185) and slightly above the 50-period EMA (18,145), signaling a neutral-to-bullish momentum. On the daily chart (not fully visible), assuming the 50-period MA is near 17,950, 100-period at 17,750, and 200-period at 17,600, the price is trading well above all three, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into positive territory midday, with a rising histogram indicating increasing bullish momentum. The RSI peaked at 70, nearing overbought territory but not yet triggering a sell signal. This suggests a continuation of the uptrend unless a bearish reversal is confirmed. A divergence was observed between the RSI and price during the 05:00–06:00 ET session, indicating caution for near-term overextension.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday rally, with the upper band extending to 18,250 and the lower band dipping to 17,850. The price closed near the upper Bollinger Band (18,250) during the peak, indicating strong bullish pressure. However, the recent pullback into the middle band (18,070) has increased the likelihood of a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 21:00–22:00 ET, confirming the breakout to 18,254. Turnover during this period exceeded ¥1.4 billion, representing 18% of the total 24-hour turnover. Notably, the volume during the consolidation phase was relatively low, suggesting a lack of bearish follow-through. A volume divergence appeared between 05:00–06:00 ET, with falling price but rising volume, hinting at potential bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels (38.2% at 18,118 and 61.8% at 18,006) provided solid support during the consolidation phase. The 15-minute swing from 17,553 to 18,254 showed strong buyers entering at the 61.8% level. A break below 18,006 would expose the next support at 17,894 (23.6%), while a retest of 18,254 could confirm a resumption of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bullish engulfing pattern, strong momentum on the MACD, and price holding above key moving averages, a backtest strategy could be constructed using the following logic:
- Enter long when the price closes above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart after forming a bullish engulfing pattern.
- Exit the position when the price closes below the 20-period EMA or when RSI crosses below 50.
- Stop-loss placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level below the entry.
This approach aims to capture short-term bullish continuation while managing risk on pullbacks, aligning with the observed price behavior during the 21:00–23:00 ET rally.