Litecoin/Yen Market Overview

• LTCJPY declined 2.7% over 24 hours amid increased volatility and bearish momentum.
• Price broke key support at 15300 Yen, triggering a 150 Yen drop.
• RSI oversold conditions suggest potential reversal, but volume remains weak.
• Bollinger Bands show high volatility with price near the lower band.
• Large-volume downswings in early Asian hours signal strong bearish sentiment.

Opening Snapshot and Key Statistics

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at ¥15700 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥15496 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour high was ¥15700, and the low was ¥15159. Total traded volume amounted to 250.602 LTC, while notional turnover reached ¥6,847,562.46. The pair displayed a bearish bias with a strong downward bias in late Asian and early European sessions.

Structure & Formations

The chart displayed several bearish signals, including a hanging man pattern at ¥15539 and a key breakdown below ¥15300. Price appears to have formed a descending channel, with resistance near ¥15530 and support near ¥15200. A doji at ¥15555 suggests indecision, but it failed to hold back the bearish trend. Key support levels include ¥15300, ¥15200, and ¥15100, while resistance is now at ¥15550 and ¥15650.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is bearishly aligned with the 50-period SMA, suggesting continued short-term weakness. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crossed below the 100 and 200-period SMAs, indicating a potential bearish trend continuation over the next few days. Price remains below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD has shown bearish divergence in the late Asian session, with a negative histogram and a bearish crossover. RSI is in oversold territory at 32, suggesting a potential short-term bounce is possible. However, RSI has remained compressed within a narrow range, indicating weak momentum. MACD remains below zero and is trending lower, suggesting that bears retain control.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion during the Asian and European sessions, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band at ¥15496, which may act as a temporary support. If price closes below the lower band in the next 24 hours, it may signal the beginning of a deeper correction toward ¥15100.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the breakdown below ¥15300, with a 15-minute bar showing 15.427 LTC traded during a 150 Yen drop. Turnover spiked in the same timeframe, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has decreased in the last 6 hours, which may indicate a temporary pause in selling pressure. A divergence between price and volume in the next few hours could signal a possible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent ¥15700–¥15159 swing, 38.2% retracement sits at ¥15472 and 61.8% at ¥15366. Price currently sits near the 61.8% level, which could either hold or break. A break below 61.8% would target ¥15207, and potentially ¥15100 if momentum remains bearish. Resistance is currently at 38.2% and ¥15539.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price environment, a potential backtesting strategy would involve entering a short position on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (¥15366) with a stop-loss above ¥15539. A target of ¥15207 and then ¥15100 would be set with a 5% risk-reward ratio. This setup would align with the bearish trend confirmed by MACD, RSI, and volume. The strategy could be tested over multiple swings to evaluate the effectiveness of Fibonacci retracement levels in a trending market.