Litecoin/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-21

• LTCJPY declined from 14,430 to 13,925 over 24 hours, closing at 14,117
• Strong bearish momentum in overnight session with 24-hour low at 13,925
• Volume spiked to 14.805 at 22:00, followed by consolidation in range-bound pattern
• Price appears trapped between key resistance at 14,355 and support at 14,117
• MACD and RSI analysis awaited due to missing RSI data

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 14,430 on 2025-10-20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 14,650, and closed the 24-hour period at 14,117 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET, down from the opening. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1,339.67 units, and total turnover amounted to approximately ¥20.46 million. Price formed a bearish consolidation pattern late into the New York session before a sharp decline into the overnight Asian window.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish structure over the 24-hour period, beginning with a long upper shadow at 16:00, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 16:30, and ending with several doji patterns between 20:00 and 23:00, signaling indecision. A strong bearish breakdown occurred at 00:15, where LTCJPY fell below 14,135 and continued down to 13,925, indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term resistance zone between 14,200 and 14,355. Key support levels were identified at 14,117 (current close) and 14,000, with 14,355 acting as a critical psychological level.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support appears to be forming at 14,117 and 14,000, with strong resistance levels at 14,206, 14,355, and 14,430. A break above 14,355 could indicate a potential recovery, while a drop below 14,000 would signal a deeper bearish phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages suggest bearish momentum, with price closing below both lines in the last four hours. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a bearish configuration, with price currently forming a bearish cross, suggesting further downward potential in the near term.

Moving Average CrossoversThe 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in the last 24 hours, forming a death cross on the short-term chart. This reinforces bearish momentum and aligns with the observed price patterns.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence in the evening session with a negative histogram and bearish crossover. While RSI data was unavailable due to a ticker recognition error, the observed price action and volume flow suggest overbought conditions were cleared during the overnight decline. If RSI is available for future reference, it could help quantify the strength of the bearish correction and potential oversold conditions.

Momentum Indicators

Given the strong bearish price action and confirmation from the MACD, it appears that LTCJPY may be approaching a short-term bottom or entering an oversold condition. However, without RSI, confirmation of overbought or oversold levels remains pending.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved within the lower Bollinger band between 00:15 and 04:15, indicating low volatility and a potential consolidation phase. Volatility expanded later in the session, with price breaking out toward the lower band in the overnight hours. A retest of the upper band at 14,355 could offer a key inflection point for reversal traders.

Volatility Insights

The contraction between 20:00 and 00:15 was followed by a sharp expansion, suggesting market participants may be bracing for a directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 22:00 with a 14.805-unit trade and again at 00:15 with 22.707 units, confirming key breakdowns. Turnover rose sharply during the decline from 14,355 to 14,117, supporting the bearish narrative. Price and turnover aligned during these key moments, reinforcing the strength of the bearish move.

Volume Divergence

Despite the price decline, volume remained strong during the key breakdowns, indicating conviction rather than a false move. No significant divergences were observed, suggesting that the bearish momentum is likely to continue unless volume begins to dry up during further declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at 14,117, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the 14,430 high. On the daily chart, the 50% retrace level is at 14,241. A break below 14,117 could see LTCJPY retest 14,000, a key Fibonacci level from previous larger swings.

Retracement Implications

Given the Fibonacci confluence at 14,117 and the strong bearish volume, it appears that this level may act as a temporary floor. A break through would signal a move toward 14,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate potential trading signals from the observed technical patterns and momentum indicators, a backtesting strategy using the 14-day RSI is proposed. Due to the current data limitation, resolving the ticker recognition issue or substituting a more widely supported pair (such as LTCUSD) will be essential for accurate signal generation. Once the correct ticker is confirmed, the RSI can be calculated to identify overbought and oversold conditions, enabling the backtest of a 3-day-hold strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-21. This approach will help assess the effectiveness of technical indicators in capturing trend shifts and managing risk in the LTCJPY pair.