Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview: Volatility and Reversals in a 24-Hour Drop

• LTCJPY opened at 15132.0, reached a high of 15357.0, and closed at 13632.0 after a volatile 24-hour period.
• A sharp bearish reversal formed around 00:00 ET with a long lower wick and large red body.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight session, with volume spiking above 1500.
• Key support appears near 13632.0 and 13234.0, with resistance levels at 14154.0 and 14300.0.
• RSI entered oversold territory after the major drop, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.

Market Activity Summary

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 15132.0 on November 2, 2025 (12:00 ET − 1), and reached an intraday high of 15357.0. The pair then sharply declined, closing at 13632.0 on November 3, 2025 (12:00 ET). Over the past 24 hours, the total volume traded was approximately 3844.5, and total turnover amounted to 56,673,788.9 (JPY). The price action suggests a major bearish reversal, with increased volatility and volume confirming the move.

Structure & Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, LTCJPY broke below key moving averages, including the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. A large bearish engulfing candle formed around 00:00 ET, signaling a potential trend reversal. The 200-period daily SMA appears to act as a strong resistance level, currently at 14600.0. The price remains well below this, indicating further downside potential unless a rebound breaks back above the 50-period SMA, currently at 14200.0.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The RSI for LTCJPY dropped into oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD (12-26-9) remains in negative territory, with the histogram declining, signaling continued bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show a significant expansion during the drop, suggesting increased volatility. Price is currently at the lower band, suggesting a potential retest of the middle band (around 14000.0) before further movement lower.

Volume and Key Levels

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight session, confirming the bearish breakdown from key levels. The largest single-volume candle occurred at 15:30 ET, where over 375 units were traded, indicating strong selling pressure. Fibonacci retracements suggest 61.8% retracement at 13668.0, a level that was briefly breached during the session. A key support zone appears to be forming near 13234.0, with a potential 23.6% bounce zone at 13895.0.

Forward Outlook and Risk Considerations

In the coming 24 hours, LTCJPY may test the 13234.0 level for a potential floor, though further downside is possible if this fails. A break above 14000.0 could trigger a short-term rebound, but the overall bearish bias remains intact. Investors should closely monitor the 20-period SMA as a potential turning point for a near-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the sharp MACD crossover into bearish territory and the confirmed breakdown from key moving averages and Fibonacci levels, a backtest based on MACD "Death Cross" events could provide valuable insight into historical LTCJPY behavior. However, due to an issue retrieving LTCJPY's MACD data, confirmation of a valid ticker is necessary. Investors might consider using LTCUSDT as a proxy, given its close correlation, to examine how LTCJPY might react to similar historical bearish signals. Once the appropriate ticker is confirmed, a study could be run from 2022-01-01 to today, detecting each MACD Death Cross and analyzing the average post-event price movement, thus providing a data-driven hypothesis for future positioning.