Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• LTCJPY surged 5.6% from 17,618 to 18,146 Yen before retreating sharply amid heavy volume.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed near 18,146 Yen, followed by a 3.3% decline by 12:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded during the bullish thrust, then contracted during the pullback.
• RSI overbought conditions confirmed the sharp rise, while MACD diverged at the peak.
• Daily Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key pullback levels at 17,700–17,900 Yen.

Market Overview

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 17,618 Yen on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET-1, and surged to a 24-hour high of 18,437 Yen before retreating sharply in the final hours. The pair closed at 17,422 Yen on October 4, 12:00 ET, after a total volume of 1,132.78 LTC and a notional turnover of ~¥19,736,105. The session showed strong early momentum followed by a bearish reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish thrust from 17,618 to 18,146 Yen, characterized by a strong rally and a bullish flag pattern. A bearish engulfing candle emerged at the high, followed by a sharp 3.3% decline toward 17,400 Yen. A doji candle at 18,102 Yen and a bearish harami pattern at 18,146 Yen signaled potential exhaustion in the upward move. The pullback found key support at 17,700–17,750 Yen before breaking the prior low of 17,500 Yen.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages during the bullish phase. However, the rapid pullback dragged it below both, indicating weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 17,850 Yen, while the 200-period MA remains around 17,600 Yen. The price appears to be consolidating below the 50-period MA, suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the final hours of the session, confirming the bearish reversal. The MACD histogram showed a divergence at the top of the bullish move, suggesting a lack of conviction in the rally. RSI hit overbought levels near 82 during the peak, then dropped rapidly to 38–40 during the pullback. This indicates a shift in momentum and could signal a potential bounce from the 17,400–17,500 Yen range.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bullish phase, with the upper band stretching to 18,400 Yen. As the price retreated, it fell below the lower Bollinger Band by 17,400 Yen, suggesting a potential oversold condition. The narrowing of the bands during the pullback may indicate a pause in volatility, with the potential for a bounce within the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish thrust, with the highest volume at 387.461 LTC during the 19:00–19:15 ET period. The bearish reversal saw a smaller but still significant volume spike, suggesting a possible short-covering phase. Notional turnover also spiked during the rally but declined significantly during the pullback. The divergence between the strong price move and lower turnover during the retreat suggests weakening conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the bullish leg (17,618–18,146 Yen) is at 17,858 Yen. The pullback has broken below this level and is now testing the 50% retracement at 17,882 Yen. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the broader move sits near 17,450 Yen, where the price has paused. A bounce from this level could see a retest of the 50% retracement, though a break below 17,400 Yen may indicate a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the identified Fibonacci levels and key support/resistance, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below the 17,400 Yen level with a stop-loss above the 17,450 Yen retracement. A target could be set near 17,200–17,300 Yen, aligning with the previous 24-hour low and a key psychological level. If the price retests the 17,450 Yen level and bounces, a long position may also be considered with a stop-loss below 17,400 Yen and a target at the 50-period MA (~17,850 Yen). This approach would balance bearish bias with potential for a rebound.