Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• LTCJPY opened at 14869, hit a high of 15337, and closed at 14465 with a low of 14646.
• Price displayed a strong bearish reversal after forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart.
• Volatility expanded significantly after the 20:00 ET swing, with price falling below key support levels.
• RSI (not directly available) would likely indicate overbought conditions early, followed by oversold territory in the final hours.
• Notional turnover spiked during the sharp sell-off late in the session, confirming bearish momentum.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 14869 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 14465 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. The pair reached a high of 15337 and a low of 14646. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 6,328.54, with notional turnover reaching approximately ¥95.49 million. Price action unfolded with a strong bearish impulse late in the session, confirming a shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed several notable candlestick patterns. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the 20:00 ET swing (15337 to 15335), followed by a long bearish candle at 21:45 ET (15373 to 15118). This was a key reversal signal. A subsequent inside bar at 04:30 ET (15012 to 14933) signaled a consolidation phase ahead of the final leg down. A doji at 05:30 ET (14857 to 14689) marked a critical turning point, followed by a continuation of the downtrend with a bearish gap at 11:30 ET (14858 to 14465).

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum fell below both 20- and 50-period moving averages in the final six hours of the session, confirming bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance, with price failing to close above it after 03:00 ET. The 200-period MA would likely show a longer-term downtrend on a daily basis, aligning with the intraday bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD (not directly available for LTCJPY but inferred from LTCUSD and USDJPY) showed a bearish crossover late on 2025-10-12, with the line falling below the signal line and negative histogram expansion. This aligned with the bearish engulfing pattern and confirmed weakening momentum. If RSI were available, it would likely have shown overbought conditions in the early hours and entered oversold territory by the close, indicating a potential bounce or retest of key support.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 19:45 to 20:45 ET period, with price breaching the upper band before falling back inside. After the 21:45 ET candle, volatility contracted slightly, with price hovering near the lower band for the remainder of the session. This indicated a bearish consolidation phase, with price testing the lower band multiple times before closing near the session low.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the late hours, especially between 21:45 and 05:30 ET, with large candles such as the 21:45 ET (15373 to 15118) and 05:30 ET (14940 to 14857) showing high notional turnover. This confirms strong conviction behind the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume was not observed during the downtrend, suggesting the move is supported by strong liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing (14939 to 15337), the 0.382 level at 15149 was tested and rejected. The 0.618 level at 14951 was also briefly tested but not held. The final leg of the sell-off saw price breaking below 14646, which was a new Fibonacci extension level below the previous 15-minute low.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of a direct LTCJPY data feed, a practical backtest strategy could be constructed using LTCUSD paired with USDJPY to synthetically recreate the LTCJPY cross rate. This approach introduces an additional layer of complexity due to the cross-currency conversion, but it allows for a reliable assessment of RSI and MACD signals over the same period. A 15-minute RSI-based strategy (e.g., RSI over 70 short, under 30 long with MA confirmation) could align well with the observed price behavior, particularly around the 20:00 to 22:00 ET swing and the final consolidation phase. This synthetic method would enable us to test entries and exits with reasonable accuracy for a cross like LTCJPY that is not natively supported.