Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• LTCJPY rallied from 17798 to 18269 before consolidating, showing strong bullish momentum early in the 24-hour period.
• A late session pullback to 17690 marked a key support zone with strong volume, suggesting a potential reversal.
• Volatility surged during the 03:45–04:30 ET window, with a high of 18304 and a 61.8% Fibonacci level acting as resistance.
• RSI overbought conditions in the morning suggest potential short-term profit-taking by traders.
• Final 15-minute bar closed near 17848, forming a bullish candlestick pattern with confirmed volume support.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 17798 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, rallied to a 24-hour high of 18304, then fell back to a close of 17848 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total trading volume reached 970.16 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥15,430,000. The price action was volatile, particularly during the overnight Asian and European sessions.

The daily structure showed a key support zone forming around 17690–17736, where volume spiked during a 2.5% pullback. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing pattern formed after the 03:45 ET high of 18304, followed by a consolidation phase. A doji appeared at the 05:45 ET mark, hinting at indecision, while a large bearish candle at 03:30 ET confirmed the pullback’s strength. The 50-period moving average crossed above the 20-period line during the morning rally, reinforcing the bullish trend.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the morning with increasing histogram height, but it flattened by midday as momentum waned. RSI peaked at overbought levels (above 70) during the 02:00–04:00 ET window, indicating potential short-term exhaustion. Bollinger Bands expanded during the 03:45–05:00 ET period, reflecting heightened volatility, with price closing near the upper band at 18304 before retracing. Fibonacci retracement levels at 17848 (61.8%) and 18003 (38.2%) became key areas for price action, with the 17848 level acting as a final pivot.

Volume surged during the overnight Asian session, particularly at the 03:45 ET high of 18304 and the 04:45 ET low of 18172. Notional turnover followed closely, confirming the price swing’s strength. However, a divergence appeared in the final two hours, with price rising while volume remained muted, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the confirmed Fibonacci support at 17848 and a bullish engulfing pattern at the close of the 24-hour period, a mean-reversion backtest could be constructed. Long entries would be triggered at a 1% retest of the 17848 level with a stop-loss below the 17736 support and a take-profit at the 18012–18048 resistance cluster. A 20-period EMA crossover above the 50-period line could act as a filter. This hypothesis would need to be tested over multiple similar volatility cycles for statistical significance.