Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• Price surged to 17,669, then corrected to close near 17,310 Yen on 24-hour chart.
• High-volume bearish divergence noted in afternoon Asian trading hours.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions with bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels may guide near-term support/resistance zones.

Opening and Closing Summary

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 17,400 Yen on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 17,310 Yen on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of 17,669 Yen and a low of 17,301 Yen. Total volume across the period was 1,582.594 LTC, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥27,122,815.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a pronounced bearish reversal, particularly from the afternoon hours on 2025-10-02 to early morning on 2025-10-03. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of the day, followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower closes. A doji was observed near the session’s low, suggesting indecision. Key support appears to have been found at 17,300–17,400 Yen, while resistance is likely around 17,550–17,610 Yen based on recent intraday peaks.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 20 MA dipping below the 50 MA, forming a bearish "death cross." For the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are also aligned lower, reinforcing the bearish trend. MACD remained negative, indicating weakening bullish momentum, and RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) by the end of the session.

The RSI’s position at 28 and the MACD’s bearish crossover suggest a high probability of a near-term bounce, but this is likely to remain within a larger bearish trend. Traders may watch for a rejection of a test of the 17,300–17,350 Yen range as a potential short-term pivot.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility throughout the session, with the lower band tracking near 17,300–17,400 Yen and the upper band reaching 17,610–17,670 Yen. Price spent the final 8–10 hours of the session near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. A contraction in band width near the doji formation at 17,309 Yen implies a potential reversal signal, though further confirmation is needed.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked notably in two instances: a high of 497.726 LTC in the second 15-minute bar (16:15 ET) and a large bearish block of 454.316 LTC at 06:15 ET, contributing to a sharp pullback. Notional turnover spiked in tandem with volume, especially during the bearish breakdown after 06:00 ET. However, volume failed to confirm the bearish move in the final 2–3 hours, indicating a possible short-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 17,669 to 17,309 Yen, key levels at 61.8% (~17,460), 50% (~17,489), and 38.2% (~17,516) could serve as potential support or bounce targets. On the daily scale, the 17,400–17,500 range appears to be a critical area of previous support that may offer buyers a chance to test the trend’s validity.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests using a bearish breakout system that triggers short entries on a close below the 50-period moving average, with a stop placed above the 20-period moving average. This strategy could benefit from the recent bearish trend and confirmed death cross on the MA structure. Trailing stops could be adjusted using the lower Bollinger Band or Fibonacci retracement levels. A long-term position would be closed if price retests and breaks above the 17,550–17,600 Yen resistance zone.