Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 16855.0 and closed at 16786.0 after hitting a high of 17407.0 and a low of 16638.0.
• Price formed a sharp bearish reversal pattern near the 17407.0 high with a long upper shadow and bearish engulfing candles.
• Volatility spiked with a large 15-minute range of 17096.0–17488.0 before consolidation at lower levels.
• Turnover surged on the breakdown below key support at 17120.0, with notable divergence in volume.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier, followed by rapid decay toward oversold territory.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 16855.0 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16786.0 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached a high of 17407.0 and a low of 16638.0, with total volume of 847.116 LTC and turnover of approximately ¥14,444,586.95. Price experienced a sharp bearish reversal from recent highs, signaling potential downward momentum into the close.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart shows a bearish structure, with key resistance levels forming around the high of 17407.0 and 17308.0. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the candle closing at 17306.0, suggesting a strong shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. The price action from 17306.0 to 16786.0 indicates a breakdown in momentum and a potential bearish continuation. A notable support level formed around 17120.0, where price stalled and reversed multiple times over the 24-hour period. A doji appeared at 17144.0, indicating indecision and a potential reversal or consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during a sharp bearish leg, confirming a shift in trend. The 20-period MA briefly crossed above the 50-period MA earlier in the session, but quickly reversed, with the 50-period MA overtaking the 20-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish bias in the longer-term trend. The 100-period MA remains close to the 50-period MA, signaling a relatively flat momentum structure over the past week.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during a sharp bearish move, confirming the shift in trend. The histogram expanded during this period, signaling strong bearish momentum. The RSI initially entered overbought territory near the 70 level but quickly fell back toward the 50 level by the close, indicating a rapid unwind of bullish positioning. The RSI crossed below the 30 level during the final leg of the bearish move, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bottom is near or has already been reached.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke out of the upper Bollinger Band during the morning hours, reaching the 17407.0 high. This break above the band indicated overbought conditions and a potential reversal. As the day progressed, the price moved back into the lower half of the bands and closed near the lower band, signaling bearish exhaustion and a contraction in volatility. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands in the final 6 hours suggests a potential breakout or breakdown is likely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown below key support at 17120.0, confirming the bearish move with high liquidity. A divergence appeared later in the session where price continued to fall, but volume declined, suggesting potential exhaustion. Turnover peaked during the morning high, confirming the strength of the bullish move, but declined significantly as the price dropped. This suggests that the bearish move was not as strongly supported by volume as the bullish leg, but the breakdown had strong confirmation from early trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 16638.0 low to the 17407.0 high show key levels that were tested during the 24-hour period. The 61.8% level at 17042.50 was briefly tested but rejected, indicating strong resistance in that area. The 38.2% level at 16963.0 acted as support for a brief period, but price continued its bearish move. The 50% level at 17022.50 was not tested during the session, but may become relevant in the next 24 hours if the price retraces.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing pattern and MACD crossover as entry signals for short positions. A short entry could be triggered on the close of a bearish engulfing candle with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the pattern. A trailing stop could be used as the price moves lower. This strategy could be tested over the past 6 months using 15-minute data, with a focus on high-volume sessions. Given the current conditions and recent bearish momentum, this strategy may offer a viable edge in the next 24 hours.