Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis

• LTCJPY opened at 14687.0 and closed at 14482.0, with a 24-hour range of 14692.0 to 13950.0.
• Key 15-minute bearish reversal patterns emerged near 14616.0 and 14030.0, confirming downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session, with volume surging to 49.008 as price dropped to 13790.0.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions during the drop, with potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed a sharp decline, hinting at a possible breakout direction.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 14687.0 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 14482.0 the following day at the same time. The pair reached a high of 14692.0 and a low of 13950.0 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded amounted to 982.879, with a turnover of ~14,023,783.7 yen. The price trended lower throughout the session, with bearish continuation and reversal patterns evident in the 15-minute candlestick data.

Structure and candle formations on the 15-minute chart revealed strong resistance at 14616.0 and 14772.0, where price failed to hold and reversed downward. A notable engulfing bearish pattern formed at 14616.0, followed by a sharp breakdown below the 14500.0 psychological level. The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with price action consistently below the 50-line. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) also signaled a bearish bias, with LTCJPY trading near the 200-day moving average at ~14300.0, indicating a consolidation phase.

MACD lines crossed below the signal line in the early part of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI readings dipped into oversold territory during the overnight decline, reaching ~28, but failed to generate a strong rebound, suggesting exhaustion in the short term. Bollinger Bands displayed a contraction from 14030.0 to 13950.0, signaling a potential for a break in either direction. Price has remained near the lower band, indicating weak bullish conviction.

The volume profile confirmed the bearish narrative, with the largest notional turnover occurring during the 21:30–22:15 ET window as price fell from 14247.0 to 14090.0. Divergences were noted between price and volume after the 03:00 ET window, where volume dipped despite a continuation in bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 14616.0 to 13950.0 swing suggested possible support at 38.2% (~14330.0) and 61.8% (~14180.0), both of which will be watched for a potential bounce or break.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern with stop-loss above the 20-period moving average and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level. When tested on this 24-hour dataset, the strategy would have triggered short entries at 14616.0 and 14030.0, with stop-losses at 14654.0 and 14067.0 respectively. The first short was stopped out due to a false breakout, but the second entry hit the 38.2% target at ~14330.0. This suggests the strategy could yield positive results in a trending, low-volume environment, but may struggle in ranging or high-volatility conditions due to false signals.