Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview – 2025-10-11

• LTCJPY opened at 19,417 and traded between 19,356 and 19,685 before closing at 14,654.
• Price experienced a sharp decline post 21:00 ET, breaking key support levels.
• Volume surged during the selloff, with turnover reaching ¥14,655,000.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with RSI below 30 and MACD in negative territory.
• Price remains below 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish bias.

Market Opening and Price Action

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 19,417 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET. Over the subsequent 24-hour period, the pair traded as high as 19,685 and as low as 14,552 before closing at 14,654 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume during this period amounted to 4,296.883 LTC, with total notional turnover reaching ¥76,534,545. The pair experienced a bearish reversal after 21:00 ET, with a sharp decline that pushed prices below key psychological and technical levels.

Structure & Formations

The LTCJPY price action showed a sharp breakdown in support following a bullish consolidation in the morning. A key support level at 19,356 was broken early in the session, followed by a series of lower lows and bearish candlestick patterns. A notable engulfing bearish pattern appeared at 19,356-19,302, confirming the downward shift. The price then formed a long bearish trendline, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. A doji appeared at 15,015, indicating indecision, but it was quickly followed by a continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, LTCJPY closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, which are at approximately 14,700 and 14,850, respectively. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains well below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are above 18,000, reinforcing the long-term bearish bias.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The RSI indicator has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though this may reflect extended bearish momentum rather than a potential reversal. The MACD is in negative territory, with the signal line pulling away, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show a significant expansion as prices move lower, with the closing price at 14,654 sitting near the lower band, indicating increased volatility and a potential extension of the downtrend.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged significantly during the sell-off, particularly between 21:00 and 21:45 ET, with the largest 15-minute candle (21:15 ET) recording a volume of 737.479 LTC. This volume spike coincided with a massive price drop from 18,481 to 14,151. However, after the sharp decline, volume has remained relatively low, suggesting that the selloff may be running out of steam. Notional turnover spiked alongside the large volume candle, with the 21:15 ET candle contributing ¥13,005,000 to the total turnover.

Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of 19,685 to the low of 14,552 show that the current price of 14,654 is near the 61.8% retracement level, which is at 15,148. This suggests that the price is consolidating near a key Fibonacci level, and a break below 14,552 could push it toward the 78.6% retracement at 14,311. On the 15-minute chart, a retracement from the high of 19,685 to the low of 14,654 shows the 38.2% level at 17,145, which the price failed to hold, reinforcing bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish momentum, confirmed by both volume and technical indicators, suggests a potential shorting opportunity for aggressive traders. A backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (15,148), with a stop-loss placed just above the 38.2% retracement at 17,145. The target could be the 78.6% level at 14,311. This strategy would be best applied in conjunction with RSI and MACD signals, entering only when RSI dips below 30 and MACD remains negative for confirmation of oversold conditions.