Litecoin/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price traded between $104.16 and $98.40, closing near the lower end of the range.
• Momentum weakened with RSI hovering near neutral, suggesting indecision.
• Volatility expanded through the session, but volume remained moderate without clear spikes.

Structure & Formations

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) formed a bearish trend over the 24-hour period, with the session high at $104.16 and low at $98.40, closing at $98.84 at 12:00 ET. A long lower shadow at $99.96 suggests a rejection near $100.59. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible near $100.3–$100.7, hinting at further downside risk. The $100.0 level may act as a key support in the near term, while $102.50 appears as a key resistance based on multiple bounces.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains below both 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The 50-EMA is at $100.45, just above the current price. On the daily chart, LTCUSDT is well below its 200-day MA at ~$105.50 and the 50-day MA at ~$103.80, reinforcing a longer-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and crossing below the signal line, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. RSI has settled around 48–50, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the market remains in a consolidation phase after the recent downtrend. A break below 40 on RSI may signal increased bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price has recently tested the lower Bollinger Band at $98.50–$98.70, indicating a period of high volatility and consolidation. The 20-period Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting increased uncertainty. As long as price remains within the bands, volatility is not yet extreme; a break below the lower band could confirm a stronger bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has been moderate throughout the session, peaking at over 161k LTC at $100.59, but turnover (notional value) did not show large spikes, suggesting limited conviction behind key price levels. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the early part of the session, with price falling despite increasing volume—this may indicate a bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $104.16 (high) to $98.40 (low), the 61.8% retraction level is at $100.30, a level that price briefly tested but failed to hold. On a daily scale, the 38.2% retracement at $102.10 and 61.8% at $100.50 are key watch levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtested strategy using RSI ≥ 70 for entries and RSI < 70 for exits on daily LTCUSDT over the period 2022–2025 has yielded poor returns, with a cumulative loss of ~50% and an annualised return of –10%. This suggests that overbought conditions often coincide with tops rather than bottoms. Traders might consider pairing RSI with additional filters, such as mean-reversion (30/70 thresholds) or trend-based filters (e.g., price above 200-day MA), to improve signal quality and reduce risk.