Litecoin/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-06

• LTC/USDT traded in a tight range during early ET, then broke lower with volume amplification.
• A 24-hour low near $118.70 was followed by a sustained rebound into midday ET, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Volatility spiked during the afternoon, but momentum remained bearish until the overnight session.
• RSI entered oversold territory late ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume confirmed the morning decline but diverged from price during the recovery, signaling caution.

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) opened at $119.71 on October 5 at 12:00 ET and closed at $119.95 on October 6 at the same time. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of $118.51 to a high of $121.17. Total volume reached 161,799 LTC, with notional turnover amounting to $19,378,100 USD.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a textbook bearish reversal after a morning sell-off, with a strong rebound from $118.51—likely encountering strong support. A bullish harami formed between 03:30–04:00 ET, as LTC/USDT closed higher than the preceding candle's range. Later in the session, a morning doji at $118.61 marked a potential turning point. Resistance appears to be forming at $120.50 and $121.17, while support levels are likely near $119.50 and $118.51.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period moving average but below the 50-period MA, indicating mixed signals. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is now crossing above the 100-period MA, forming a golden cross, which could suggest long-term strength ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed into negative territory in the early morning, confirming bearish momentum, but then flipped positive during the rebound. RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight hours, entering oversold territory and suggesting short-term buying pressure may follow. However, the divergence in volume and RSI during the morning rally implies caution in expecting a large reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was at a 24-hour high as the afternoon session progressed, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price tested the lower band at $118.51 during the afternoon and later bounced to test the upper band near $121.17. The price has remained inside the bands for most of the session, indicating contained movement and potentially low risk of a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning sell-off, peaking around $118.94 with a turnover of $3.5M. A second spike occurred in the early overnight hours as the price rebounded. However, the volume failed to confirm the morning rally, indicating possible bearish exhaustion. Notional turnover remained elevated but declined slightly in the afternoon, suggesting a waning interest in aggressive shorting.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels played a crucial role during the afternoon and overnight recovery. The 50% retracement level from the low at $118.51 to the high at $121.17 came in at $119.84, where LTC/USDT found a temporary ceiling during the early morning. A 61.8% retracement at $120.34 coincided with the morning resistance level and acted as a key pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on LTC/USDT when RSI crosses below 30 and volume increases by at least 30% from the 4-hour average. The target entry would be near a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level with a stop-loss placed just below the recent swing low. This setup aligns with the observed morning recovery and could be backtested using a 15-minute timeframe from October 1 to October 5. The strategy would also benefit from a positive MACD crossover and confirmation from moving average alignment.